The National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), also known as an official inflation preview, marked 0.11%in January, a slowdown in compared to that recorded in December 2024 (0.34%).
This result is the smallest for a month since July 2023, when there was negative inflation of 0.07%. It is also the smallest for a month of January throughout the Real Plan, which started in 1994. In January 2024, the IPCA-15 recorded 0.31%.
Data were released on Friday (24) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). In the accumulated of the last twelve months, the IPCA-15 adds 4.5%, exactly at the maximum limit of the government’s inflation target. In December, this accumulated was 4.71%.
January’s slowdown means that inflation has lost strength, that is, prices rose on average, but to lower speed. Food and air ticket prices exerted high pressure on IPCA-15. On the other hand, the cost of housing retreated, pulled by drop in the electricity bill.
Food pressure
Eight of the nine groups surveyed by IBGE had discharged. The largest influence came from food and beverages, which rose 1.06%, representing weight of 0.23 percentage point (PP) in the index. The effect of food on inflation has motivated discussions in the government.
Within the food group, the items that pressured upward inflation were the meal (0.96% and weight of 0.04 pp), ground coffee (7.07% and weight of 0.03 pp) and tomatoes , which rose 17.12%, representing weight of 0.03 pp
Transport was the second group with the highest pressure in the cost of living, with an expansion of 1.01% and weight of 0.21 pp
Relief in Light
The only group with a negative rate was housing, with a drop of 3.43% and weight of -0.52 pp the explanation is in electricity, which regressed 15.46%, benefited by the Itaipu bonus, a discount on the account of consumer light. This variation meant a decrease of 0.6 pp in the preview of inflation.
Determined by law, the bonus is a way of distributing the state company’s profits responsible for power generation.
Transportation
In individual terms, the highest rise in all inflation got the airline tickets, which rose 10.25% in the month, impacting the IPCA-15 at 0.08 pp
Still in the Transportes Group, fuels rose 0.67%. In the month when several capitals had a readjustment in road tariffs, the urban bus subittem showed a variation of 0.46%.
Goal
The difference from IPCA 15 to the so -called closed IPCA is the price calculation period and the scope. The preview researched values from December 13, 2024 to January 14, 2025, in 11 locations, nine metropolitan regions.
Already the closed IPCA will bring data from 16 locations and on dates within the reference month only. Both rates take into account the cost of living of families with income up to 40 minimum wages. Currently the minimum wage is R $ 1,518.
The closed IPCA will be released on February 11. It is based on it that the Central Bank monitors the inflation target. For 2025, the goal is 3%, with tolerance of 1.5 percentage points for more or less. In 2024, the country ended with the 4.83%IPCA, above the goalwhich also had a limit at 4.5%.
From this year, the chase of the goal is from the 12 months immediately passed and not just in the final result of December. The goal will only be considered breached if the tolerance interval bursts for six straight months.
