The official inflation preview for November was 0.20%, a result that makes the 12-month accumulated Broad National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) mark 4.5%, the limit of the government’s target.
In the 12 months ending in October, the IPCA-15 registered 4.94%. This is the first 12-month accumulation within the target since January 2025, when it was also at 4.5%. In April, the highest point since then, it reached 5.49%.
The data was released this Wednesday (26) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
The government’s target is 3% per year with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points more or less, that is, a maximum of 4.5%.
Financial institutions consulted by the Focus newsletterfrom the Central Bank, released on Monday (24), estimate that the IPCA should end the year at 4.45%, within the target tolerance.
Influences
In October, the IPCA-15 was 0.18%. Of the nine groups of products and services surveyed by IBGE, seven increased from October to November:
- Food and drinks: 0.09%
- Housing: 0.09%
- Household items: -0.20%
- Clothing: 0.19%
- Transport: 0.22%
- Health and personal care: 0.29%
- Personal expenses: 0.85%
- Education: 0.05%
- Communication: -0.19%
The increase in the personal expenses group represented the biggest impact on the IPCA-15, 0.09 percentage points. Within the group, the greatest pressure was exerted by accommodation (4.18%) and tourist packages (3.90%).
Plane and gasoline
In the transport group, the main influence on the increase in prices was air tickets, which rose 11.87%. Thus, of all 377 products and services researched by IBGE, the plane ticket was the subitem that pushed the IPCA-15 the most.
On the other hand, fuels fell in the month (-0.46%). Gasoline, the product that weighs most in Brazilians’ consumption basket, fell 0.48%, being the subitem that most helped to hold down the IPCA-15 (impact of -0.02 percentage points), alongside long-life milk, rice and residential electricity.
Food
The rise in the food and beverage group interrupts a sequence of five declines. However, specifically food at home decreased by 0.15%. This is the sixth consecutive retreat for this item. In 12 months, it shows an increase of 3.61%, below the general IPCA-15.
The main impacts for this result of a drop in the price of food at home between October and November were:
- long life milk: -3.29%
- rice: -3.10%
- fruits: -1.60%
At the other end, they went up:
- English potato: 11.47%
- soybean oil: 4.29%
- meat: 0.68%
Preview x full month
The IPCA-15 basically has the same methodology as the IPCA, the so-called official inflation, which serves as the basis for the government’s inflation target policy.
The difference lies in the price collection period and geographic coverage. In the preview, the research is carried out and published even before the reference month ends. In relation to the current disclosure, the collection period was from October 14th to November 13th.
Both indices take into account a basket of products and services for families with incomes between one and 40 minimum wages. Currently the minimum value is R$1,518.
The IPCA-15 collects prices in 11 locations across the country (the metropolitan regions of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, in addition to Brasília and Goiânia); and the IPCA, in 16 locations (including Vitória, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís and Aracaju). The full IPCA for November will be released on December 10th.
Expanded article at 9:52 am
