Credicorp Capital estimated that in 2024 the poverty would have been reduced by around one percentage point. With this projection, the figure would drop from the 29% that was registered in 2023, to 28%, but it would still be far from reaching the levels prepandemic (20.2%).
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As recalled, in 2023 this indicator increased by 1.5% compared to a year before. With this result, 3,290,000 people fell into a situation of poverty since 2019, that is, in four years.
“Something close to a reduction of one percentage point in 2024 is quite feasible, among other things, because growth was relatively high and we were coming from a contraction of the economy throughout 2023,” he said.
HOW DO WE REDUCE POVERTY AT A GREATER RATE?
The Public Policy Manager of the Peruvian Institute of Economics (IPE), Victor Fuenteshe stated to Peru21 that for the figures of poverty return to the levels prior to the health crisis, it is necessary for the Peruvian economy to grow at a rate of 5%, while the private investment do it in double digits.
“We must promote growth, taking into account private investment as the main driver. If it grows at 5% and private investment grows in double digits, we could return to pre-pandemic levels in a decade,” he assured.
Although today the figures do not match, since economic progress in 2024 would have been only 3.2%, while private disbursement would have expanded by around 4%, the IPE representative pointed out that the country has the potential to obtain better results. If no actions are taken, he stated that it would take between 20 and 30 years to reach the results recorded in 2019.
“We have potential, projects, an important demographic dividend. There are interesting natural, cultural and potential resources, but we are not taking advantage of them and that has to do with this disarray of the institutions,” he added.
Regarding the possibility that private investment will grow at least 5% in 2025, which is the result that the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) is now aiming for, Víctor Fuentes stated that it is difficult to reach that level because it is a pre-electoral year.
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