Republican candidates appear to be making progress on the final run to the midterm elections on Nov. 8, with new election forecasts in key swing states and partisan strongholds showing worrying signs for Democrats.
In Ohio, 40% of likely voters said they would prefer both the House and Senate to be controlled by Republicans, versus 33% who said the opposite, according to a Spectrum News/Siena College poll released Monday.
The poll, conducted by telephone of 644 likely Ohio voters between October 14 and 19, has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.
Republican Senate candidate JD Vance, who is endorsed by former President Donald Trump, maintains a lead in the polls over former Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan. Trump won comfortably in both 2016 and 2020.
While the latest poll shows a close race, the trend is in Vance’s favor: Last month’s Siena poll showed Ryan with a 3 percentage point lead.
Meanwhile, voters’ preference for a GOP-controlled Congress underscores the Democrats’ struggles in an election cycle in which the incumbent president’s party tends to be out of favor, and where high inflation has remained a factor. major issue across all demographic lines.
Even in reliably blue states, Democrats’ slim majorities in Congress are under threat.
Cook’s political briefing on Monday changed his rating for New York’s 17th congressional district to “Toss Up” from “Lean Democrat” as internal polling shows Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in a major fight against Republican Mike Lawler.
Maloney is the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and a five-term incumbent in the House. He had drawn criticism after the state’s messy redistricting process prompted him to seek re-election in a neighboring district, ousting freshman progressive Rep. Mondaire Jones.
A Republican super PAC recently began spending millions of dollars in Maloney’s district, prompting Democrats to increase their own spending on the race.
Another Spectrum News/Siena poll released Monday, this time from Texas, shows Republican incumbent Governor Greg Abbott holding a sizable lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, 52% to 43%.
Abbott’s lead appears unaffected by O’Rourke’s campaign fundraising efforts. The pollster asked 649 likely Texas voters between October 16 and 19, and she has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.
Democrats have struggled to combat GOP messages on crime and the economy, especially the high inflation that has plagued the administration of President Joe Biden.
Biden’s approval rating, while improving from its summer lows, remains underwater and is seen as a potential drag on some Democrats struggling to survive in battleground states.
