When the results of the national elections on October 27 were known, we saw messages of hope and satisfaction in both formulas, as if they had won. Perhaps the greatest fervor and level of celebration was presented by the supporters of Delgado – Ripoll. How is the election result analyzed for the November 24 runoff? Why did Manini Ríos vote so badly? How would the National Party govern if the majority in the Senate is Frente Amplista? EL ECO conveyed all these questions and others to the political scientist Adolfo Garcé.
-On television, on Sunday we saw that the two blocks celebrated. What is your view of the results ahead of the runoff on Sunday, November 24?
-We are going to a movie ballot. I was reviewing things I wrote in February, March, 2024… I said: we are going to an election of maximum uncertainty. It’s going to be another election with a difference of thirty thousand votes. Because the Frente Amplio grew five points, which is no small feat. In the interior of the country it grew quite a bit. But at the same time the Republican Coalition was the most voted.
I think the competition is so even, the two blocks are so comparable, that just a few votes make a huge difference. That is to say, it is possible that this growth that the broad front had is enough to win in the runoff.
I also believe that the behavior of voters who voted for Coalition parties this November is going to be quite different from what happened five years ago. Five years ago there was a lot of migration, right? From Coalition parties in October towards the candidacy of Daniel Martínez. So, some small vote can always escape, but it will not be the migration of five years ago.
-What is your analysis of the low vote in Cabildo Abierto?
-That is one of the mysteries of the election. And many things can be put together. First, Cabildo was a loyal partner in the sense that it remained in the Coalition the entire time. He never broke with the Coalition, but he had many clashes and some very hard ones. Perhaps Coalition voters are penalizing him for pulling the strings so hard. Perhaps many coalition voters thought: “well, this party is more of a problem than anything else.” Perhaps they are also charging him, well, for the episode that cost Minister Irene Moreira the resignation. Perhaps they are charging him for Manini’s own change of position on the issue of jurisdictions. Well, he campaigned in 2019 saying that he was not going to rely on the jurisdictions, in 2020 he actually did. In short, they are surely a set of things. And perhaps there is also a part of Manini’s voters who came from the Frente Amplio, “the most fragile” – as Manini says -, and perhaps they returned to the Frente Amplio.
-In the Republican Coalition, the Independent Party and Cabildo Abierto lowered their political power. Is this grouping of sectors going to become a party, or will it be a partisan alliance between whites and reds?
-Well, it is the big question for the next few years, especially depending on how Delgado votes. I would say that if Delgado loses the runoff, the demand to become a single party will be very strong. Because the seat allocation system, which is a bit special in Uruguay, is a Uruguayan electoral engineering that rewards the parties and that makes a lot of sense. The Republican coalition has the most votes, but has three points more than the Frente Amplio in total. However, it is in the minority in the Senate. And that could cost him the election. If the choice is not difficult for you, I think they will maintain the current criteria. If the election costs him, I think there will be a strong demand to transform into a single party.
-If Álvaro Delgado wins the Presidency of the Republic in the runoff, how will he govern with a majority of the Broad Front Senate? Is it a stumbling block?
-I would put it in terms of challenge. It is an enormous challenge, regarding the ability to negotiate. Uruguay is going to have to draw from there, from the depths of its political tradition, the best. The best thing about Uruguay has been its negotiation capacity, the ability to make agreements. And I believe that we have been losing that in recent years, when the logic of majority governments was installed. Since Sanguinetti in his second presidency, he governed with a majority and did not need to make an agreement with the Frente Amplio. He tried to reach an agreement with the Frente Amplio on some reform, but could not. And the 15 years of government of the Front and these 5 years of government of the coalition with the Frente Amplio in the opposition, almost without dialogue. So, I would say that whatever the result of the runoff, they are condemned to negotiate.
