Gustavo Petro prepares to leave his final seal in the country’s economic policy, as demonstrated in the recent socialization of the national budget project for 2026, in which it was warned that he will go for the highest tax reform In the history of the country, even exceeding the controversial Carrasquilla reform, which he criticized so much.
As stated by the Ministry of Finance, it is a financing bill with which his government seeks to raise no less than $ 26 billion and immediately puts everyone to think about the adjustments that must be made to reach these amounts, necessary to stabilize the finance of the State.
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The reform, which according to sources from the Ministry of Finance will be presented at the end of August, would have fiscal effects as of January 2026 and although the articulated is not yet known, the medium -term fiscal framework revealed its main guidelines, which pass through a drastic cutting of exemptions, adjustments in consumption taxes and new environmental taxes, which help comply with the fiscal rule and avoid a debt crisis.
While some analysts and qualifiers expect that this proposal does not see the light, due to the adverse political environment in Congress, where the majorities are unstable and the union repairs have not taken long to arrive; It does not stop drawing attention to the fact that the requested and tied to the Nation’s General Budget as Financing Law is even higher than the $ 23 billion sought Iván Duque at the end of his mandate.
National budget accounts concern experts.
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The heart of the proposal is to reduce the structural deficit that threatens to overflow public finances, in a low growth context, increased debt service and collection.
Historical comparisons
If approved in its original terms, Gustavo Petro’s reform would become In the most ambitious of the last two decades or, it can be said, in the history of the country, taking into account that according to figures from the Ministry of Finance and the National Planning Department, recent reforms raised $ 19.7 billion in 2022 (petro), $ 15.2 billion in 2021 (Duke), $ 13.5 billion in 2019 (Duke), $ 12.5 billion in 2014 2012 (Santos).
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It should be remembered that at the end of 2021, then President Iván Duque presented a reform for $ 23 billion to Congress, which was in charge of its Minister of Finance Alberto Carrasquilla, who had to resign after the defeat he had in the legislative, since the proposal sought to even modify the VAT and was rejected as a pit.
The new goal set by the Ministry of Finance, even exceeds the levels achieved by the governments of Álvaro Uribe, Juan Manuel Santos and Iván Duque. However, analysts warn that the size of the collection is not the only determining factor, since political legitimacy, technical design and legal certainty of the reform will be key to its sustainability and A poor implementation could be translated into litigation, evasion or improvised fiscal adjustments in the future.
National budget accounts concern experts.
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Based on data collected by Portfolio, it can be said that Colombia has had at least 42 tax reforms since 1900, according to records of the National Planning Department and the laws approved between 1991 and 2022. Only in the twentieth century 24 reforms were implemented, and in the last three decades 18 more were added, which has modified its tax system almost every two years, with changes that range from minor adjustments to structural transformations.
What knows about the reform?
For now the only thing that is known, according to statements by the Minister of Finance Germán ÁvilaIt is that among the measures contemplated by the Government is the progressive elimination of tax benefits that today cost the country more than $ 135 billion a year, concentrated in VAT, rent of natural and legal persons.
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A harmonization of consumption tax with VAT is also studied, which could imply that products such as sugary drinks, electronic cigarettes or ultraprocessed meals go from 8% to 19%.
Another novelty would be the so -called “green taxes”, aimed at activities with high environmental footprint. In the sights are carbon, pesticides, industrial noise and vapers. And although the president has insisted that the middle classes will not be affected, the Ministry of Finance Evaluate raise marginal rates for deciles of higher income in personal income.
Gustavo Petro, president of Colombia.
AFP
A point that has reassured certain sectors is that the proposal will not include taxes on pensions or increases for low -income people. Nor is a generalized VAT contemplate, but selective. “The objective is not to hit citizens, but to correct distortions of the tax system that benefit a few today,” Minister Germán Ávila recently explained.
The fiscal clock runs
Finally, it must be said that without a reform, the country would have to resort to cuts drastic or more debt to close the fiscal gap in 2026, since the government activated in June the escape clause of the fiscal rule, which allows it to exceed until 2028. But the commitment assumed before the IMF, the qualifiers and the investors is that in 2026 Colombia will return to a path of fiscal responsibility.
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Gustavo Petro himself has warned that if the reform is not approved, the deficit could be kept above 5% of GDP, while according to Fitch, the debt would scale at 64% in 2027 and the margin for social spending and investment would be completely reduced.
That is why beyond its technical content, this reform is emerging as the last great flag of Gustavo Petro in fiscal matters and its objective is to close the cycle with A more progressive redistribution of the State’s income, pointing to a fairer tax structure.
As soon as the debate for next year’s national budget begins.
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However, we must bear in mind that the conditions are not those of 2022 and today the government is more isolated, the less permeable congress and the most skeptical markets; So the question is not only if the reform is approved, but if it will have sufficient legitimacy to endure; While with the regional and presidential elections around the corner, the line between fiscal policy and electoral calculation will be thinner than ever.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
