One year after Gustavo Petro’s mandate ends, the fulfillment of the National Development Plan (PND) 2022-2026 is again in the center of the debate, since while the government defends a general progress greater than 50%, a new academic report He assures that real progress is less and warns that a good part of the goals could be unfinished.
The study, prepared by the Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences of the University From San Buenaventura (USB), Bogotá Headquarters, reviewed budget execution figures, performance by strategic axes and social results as of August 2025 and clearly concludes that the PND only registers 46.3% compliance, although more than 60% of the government time has already elapsed.
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Thus, “at this rhythm, Colombia would reach 2026 with just 68% of the plan executed. That means that one in three government commitments would stay in seeing,” says Julio Enrique Duarte, dean of the Faculty and author of the report.
According to the document, the budget execution is far from homogeneous if one takes into account that until May of this year, only 41.2% of the budget approved by 2025 had been committed, with key sectors such as work, agriculture and social inclusion below 20% execution.
President Petro began his last year of government.
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At the regional level, the report shows a strong disparity in which Antioquia and Bogotá lead public investment, while Guajira and Chocó barely exceed 30% progress in their projects; So for this university, this gap is one of the main threats to the real impact of the National Development Plan.
Fiscal pressure and increasing debt
The study also alerts on the deterioration of public finances and highlights That the fiscal deficit for 2025 already borders 7.1% of GDP and public debt amounts to 61.3%, which has led agencies such as S&P and Moody’s to reduce the country’s credit rating. They also highlight that currently, more than 137% of what is invested in social works or programs is used for debt payment, a scenario that limits the ability to advance in plan’s goals.
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The USB analysis contrasts with the figures presented by the National Planning Department (DNP), which with a cut at June 30, 2025 reports 58.23% compliance. According to official data, some axes show solid advances, such as human security and social justice (64.69%) or regional convergence (60.89%), while others, as a territory ordering around water and environmental justice, barely reach 40.48%.
The government also highlights that sectors such as defense, culture, trade or science exceed 70% execution, although it recognizes important lag in transport, agriculture, equality and statistics.
President Petro began his last year of government.
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Given this, the academic report recognizes that there have been social advances; Since according to DANE figures, monetary poverty fell to 31.8% in 2024, the lowest level since 2012, with more than 1.2 million people leaving that condition. In labor matters, the national unemployment rate fell to 8.6% in June 2025, the lowest in more than a decade.
However, it emphasizes that 59% of the new jobs are informal, unemployment Juvenile is around 16% and significant gaps persist between men and women, as well as between the big cities and the remote regions.
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Tax inequality and productive lag
Another critical point is the structure of tax benefits; in which the tax expenditure represents between 8.5% and 8.7% of GDP, but 90% of these incentives benefit large companies, leaving MSMEs with minimal access to these advantages; While for the San Buenaventura University, this inequality limits the state’s ability to finance social policies and slows productive diversification.
The final diagnosis is that the PND progresses, but not in a balanced way; Since Bogotá and Medellín have managed to reduce their poverty below 20% and maintain urban unemployment below 8%, while in Chocó and Guajira poverty is around 50% and unemployment exceeds 30%.
President Petro began his last year of government.
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Thus, for the authors of the report, the key in this last year of mandate will be to accelerate the execution on the lagging fronts, reduce the territorial gap and ensure that the official figures are translated into real changes for the population. Otherwise, the National Development Plan could become a promise half compliance.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
