According to the results of the recent National Consulting Center (CNC) survey on intention to vote, for the first ballot of the presidential elections, Federico Gutiérrez and Gustavo Petro are still far from the rest of the candidates; and, in an eventual second round, the distance between the two of them would be considerably reduced.
(The economic uncertainty brought by the elections in the country).
The measurement was carried out by the CNC for the magazine ‘Semana’ between March 28 and 31, once the vice-presidential formulas of each of the candidates competing for the Presidency of the Republic were known.
The size of the sample is considerable: 4,206 interviewees, which allowed reduce the margin of error to 1.5 percentone of the lowest in opinion polls in the country.
(Elections 2022: Registrar announced changes in form E-14).
IN FIRST ROUND
According to the figures, Petro, presidential candidate of the Historical Pact, obtains 36.5% of the voting intention for the first round, 4.4 percent more than in the measurement made by the same pollster on March 18 (32.1%).
For its part, the presidential candidate of Team for ColombiaFedErico Gutiérrez, reaches 24.5% of the intention to vote. In the last survey it had 23.2 percent, so its growth in the last two weeks was 1.3 percent.
In this sense, none of the candidates would reach the 50.1 percent necessary to prevail in the first round and, therefore, there should be a new election with the two with the highest votes.
Rodolfo Hernandez, ranked third in voting intention for the first round, is 14.5 points behind Gutiérrez and 26.5 behind Petro. What shows that the latter have a good advantage over the rest of the competitors.
After the former mayor of Bucaramanga was located Serge Fajardo, candidate of the Hope Center Coalition, who also lost percentage according to the survey. On March 18, it was at 9.7%, it fell 1.3 points and it remained at 8.4% of voting intention.
The Oxygen Green Party candidate, Ingrid Betancourt, also lost ground: it went from 2.6% in the survey two weeks ago to 1.5% in the most recent one. It fell 1.1 percent.
John Milton Rodríguez, presidential candidate of Colombia Justa Libres, began to score and stood at 0.9%, and Enrique Gómez Martínez, of the National Salvation Movement, dropped from 0.7% to 0.5. In last place was Luis Pérez Gutiérrez, from the Colombian Citizen Movement Think Big, who went from 0.6% to 0.3.
THE BLANK VOTE
The white vote grew between March 18 and 31: in the last survey it was 5.3 percent and now it is 8.1 percent. However, those who do not know or do not respond fell from 12.7 to 6.2%.
These figures could change in the two months remaining for the first round, in which the alliances and the strategies applied by the presidential candidates could tip the balance in favor of some campaigns.
EVENTUAL SECOND ROUND
According to the recent survey, for a possible second round, there is a reduction in the distance between Petro and Gutiérrez in the measurement of the National Consulting Center revealed on February 2.
In that survey, the candidate of the Historical Pact obtained 43% of voting intentions for a second presidential round and that of Team for Colombia, 24%. In the recent measurement, Petro gets 43% and Gutiérrez rises 16.1 percent and reaches 40.1%.
BRIEFCASE
(With information from EL TIEMPO)
