After two consecutive years of non-compliance, the fiscal deficit It reached the goal equivalent to 2.2% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the end of 2025, according to information from Scotiabank with data from the Central Reserve Bank (BCR).
This result is lower than the 3.4% recorded in 2024. According to the entity, this compliance responds to the increased tax collection, driven by high metal prices. The greater dynamism of domestic demand and extraordinary income also helped to comply with the rule.
What does this data mean? That Peru complies with the fiscal rule shows that the State has managed to control its expenses so that they do not excessively exceed its income. This is a sign of economic stability and maintains investor confidence.
Despite these results, it must be remembered that recently the Fiscal Council warned that there are 26 laws approved in Congress during José Jerí’s administration, which were not observed despite the adverse fiscal impact. The CF has also criticized that so far no action has been filed before the Constitutional Court for these regulations.
Outlook for 2026
Scotiabank recalled that for this year the deficit is required to reach 1.8% of GDP. For the financial entity, this goal would not be met since it estimates that it is 2% of the Gross Domestic Product.
To reverse this result and comply with the rule, the company pointed out that it is necessary for tax revenues to grow above what was projected, for internal demand to advance above what is usual in an election year, and for the State not to make new contributions to Petroperú or expenses to Defense such as the purchase of airplanes.
“In recent years, Congress has approved a series of laws that imply an increase in the salaries of state workers, permanently increasing public spending. In this sense, a pending task continues to be the expansion of the tax base, in particular the fight against tax evasion,” he added.
Along the same lines, a survey by the Peruvian Institute of Economics (IPE) among economists revealed that 65% of those surveyed do not consider the deficit goal of 1.8% for this year to be credible or achievable. “There is a greater consensus of skepticism about the MEF’s ability to comply with the fiscal rule in force this year,” he said.
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