The dollar exchange rate maintained its trend on the rise for the fifth consecutive day. In the session of Today it closed at 3,797 soles per dollarwhich meant an advance of 0.24% compared to the previous day. Thus, the greenback is three thousandths away from breaking the barrier of 3.8 soles, a level it reached a month ago.
LOOK: Dollar closes higher, driven by corporate demand and global expectations
The volatility of the currency has been unleashed in the last three weeks, mainly associated with external factors. Kalpa Securities SAB’s Head of Analysis, Marco Contreras, told Peru21 that the rise of the dollar is due to the fact that has become an active refuge investors, due to the negative performance of the American economy. This is measured through its employment indicators.
“Company profits (in the US) have not come in as expected, nor has the labour market. This has led to the belief that the Federal Reserve may have kept its rates on hold for longer than it should have, which could push the US economy into recession.“, the expert said.
Dollar per square
The platforms of the four main banks They offer to buy dollars at a rate of 3,722 soles per dollar and sell at a price of 3,869 soles.
Meanwhile, Virtual platforms of exchange houses and fintech They buy dollars at a rate between 3.77 and 3.793. And they sell at between 3.795 and 3.811.
“Today an employment indicator came out in the US that, although it is not the main one, was not as expected and this caused them to take refuge in the dollar.“said Santiago Pérez del Solar, senior investment analyst at Prima AFP.
Gianina Villavicencio, Foreign Exchange Intermediation Manager at Renta4 SAB, stated that The Central Reserve Bank (BCR) intervened in the foreign exchange market through exchange rate swaps for 1,384 million soles, of which 800 million corresponded to renewals.
“At a global level, the dollar continues to gain positions in a scenario where Investors are waiting for the results to be published this Friday US labor market data could offer a clue as to the extent of the Federal Reserve’s projected rate cuts of 25 to 50 basis points“, Villavicencio said.
Scenarios
According to Perez del Solar, the base scenariowhich favors the Peruvian currency, is that the employment data in the United States that comes out this Friday indicates that the slowdown in activity in that economy remains healthy and that inflation continues to contract. This would reduce the feeling of risk and would lead investors to once again bet on countries with solid fundamentals such as Peru.
“Volatility should continue in the short term. Also, in the medium term, there could be volatility due to the elections (in the US), but Looking ahead to the end of the year, the dollar rate should return to its fundamental value“, said Perez del Solar.
According to the expert, The fundamental value of the exchange rate in Peru It is estimated between 3.70 and 3.75 per dollar.
Among the factors that could lead the currency to its fundamentals are: the four cuts that the FED is expected to make to its interest rate, the solid macroeconomic fundamentals of Peru and seasonal factors linked to the end-of-year festivities.
During the day, lThe greenback’s exchange rate reached a minimum of 3,792 soles and a maximum of 3,802. On the interbank market, dollars worth 441.5 million were traded at an average price of 3.7965.
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