The discussion about pension reform has been marked by a central element and is the balance between guaranteeing countertops to current retirees and building savings for workers who barely begin their working life, in the midst of An environment in which the population of the country is aging and the workforce continues to lose strength.
In that pulse, the Anif Economic Studies Center launched a warning that has not gone unnoticed, since it emphasizes that with the new scheme, Colombia could lose about $ 170 billion in pension savings around 2040; a figure that is not lower, because it represents a direct blow both for The future of workers as for the financing capacity of the economy as a whole.
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To explain their point, these analysts published a report in which they maintain that in the heart of the debate is the way the contributions will be distributed, since today, under the current system, of every $ 100 that workers provide, $ 70 go directly to individual accounts of savings in private funds and $ 30 are allocated to the delivery regime, which uses those resources immediately to pay pensions.
All this under a clear logic in which most reserve and invest in portfolios Diversified that, over time, allow us to generate yields and strengthen the capital of those who save.
The pension savings in Colombia is one of the issues that matter most about pension reform.
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With the new scheme, that equation is invested and as explained by José Ignacio López, president of Anif, “of every 100 pesos of contributions we will be spending 70 and we will be saving only 30”, so he stressed that this reversal is not a technical detail, but a structural change that will significantly reduce the savings capacity of workers and the country.
Anif’s report is overwhelming and warns that if the current scheme was maintained, in 2040 Colombia could have accumulated pension savings close to $ 1,212 billion pesos (in values constants of 2024). But with the reform in progress, that amount would fall to $ 1,042 billion.
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“The difference, those $ 170 billion, is the magnitude of the projected loss. This is equivalent to subtracting oxygen from the capital market and the investment in strategic sectors, since a good part of the resources that today nourish the financial system come just from the long -term savings of the workers,” they said.
Can it be avoided?
One of the mechanisms designed to mitigate this impact is the Pilar Savings Fund Contributive (FAPC), which in theory should pick up part of the contributions to guarantee a mattress of resources forward. However, Anif warns that this fund will be nourished to a greater extent of existing resource transfers than of new quotes, which compromises its sustainability.
The pension savings in Colombia is one of the issues that matter most about pension reform.
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In López’s words, “the new system will have less pension savings for workers, so that by 2040 we will have $ 170 billion less savings in Colombia as a result of the fact that we are traveling towards a system where the cast, which is a system where there are simply entries and exits and there is no savings, it will gain participation.”
The concern is not less if the role of pension funds in the economy has been considered. For example, in 2024, private multipurches accumulated Resources equivalent to 27.3% of GDP, with quotes that amounted to $ 41.3 billion pesos.
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“These funds, thanks to the diversification of their portfolios, have allowed workers to access more competitive returns, while promoting the development of the capital market, finance public and private debt, and leverage business and infrastructure projects,” added the president of Anif.
It is because of this that López makes it clear that “with less savings availablethe demand for financial assets will also be reduced, and with it the margin for the country to finance its growth ”.
The pension savings in Colombia is one of the issues that matter most about pension reform.
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The most affected
According to ANIF calculations, the sectors most affected by the drop in savings would be the local public debt, which would lose around $ 68 billion pesos in demand by 2040, and the international variable income, with a cut of $ 47 billion. This, they explained, implies that the State would have to look for more expensive alternatives to finance and that companies could face greater difficulties in accessing capital in international markets.
The warning comes at a time of high expectation, given that pension reform is one of the central bets of the Petro government and its entry into force arouses as much anxiety as uncertainty and for workers, the promise It is of greater coverage, especially for those who have not had a continuous or formal working life.
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But for analysts, the sustainability of the system is an issue that cannot be neglected, highlighting that “we are at the doors that among a new pension system, there is a lot of anxiety when it will enter, but we have a great concern from Anif and it is the pension savings of the workers of Colombia,” López insisted.
For now this project is still stagnant in the Constitutional Court, where the judges deal to define whether or not there were procedures during their approval. While some companies have already begun to prepare, while others prefer to await their future; Alerts on the effects of the reform do not cease.
The pension savings in Colombia is one of the issues that matter most about pension reform.
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Meanwhile, Anif, in its role as the Center for Economic Studies, has raised several recommendations, beginning with maintaining the independence of resources between the different pillars of the system, preventing contributory contributions from mixing with contributions of semicontributive or supportive schemes.
“The second is shielding the savings of the tax pillar as an untouchable resource, so that it fulfills its purpose of giving stability over time. We must also avoid forced investments and Keep the diversification logic that private funds apply today, while driving the development of a competitive market of life income, ”said José Ignacio López.
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Finally, as a control measure, they insisted on the need for an actuarial study in 2026, when the reform is already underway and it is possible to evaluate its true impact. However, the debate begins and the positions will continue polarized; While it seems indisputable is that the reform, in the way it is raised, will reduce the pension savings of the workers and the country.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
