Roxana Muñoz, an analyst for Pemex at Moody’s, said that Pemex’s financial requirements for 2025 are not that worrying, because the Mexican government is surely already considering them, but those for 2026 are the year in which there will be a peak.
Pemex’s requirements for 2025 are $16.9 billion, for 2026 they rise to $19.1 billion and for 2027 they fall to $14.2 billion.
The 2026 peak is explained by a debt maturity of 12.2 billion dollars, a figure that doubles next year’s maturities of 6.2 billion.
Muñoz points out that Pemex’s financial requirements in 2026 will double the annual average of the last five years, which was $9 billion.
“There is a lot of uncertainty about what the next administration will do to address these risks, and one of our most plausible scenarios, given the messages given by the next president, is a major debt restructuring, especially for the 2026 and 2027 maturities, which are the years with the highest peaks in long-term maturities.”
This addresses part of the financial requirement, but not the entire requirement; it only helps mitigate liquidity pressures.
The specialist pointed out that an important aspect of the government’s support is that it maintains its rating at B3, because if it were not for this, its real credit rating would be Ca, that is, with a high risk of default (80%) of its financial commitments.
In terms of debt payment support, Moody’s believes that Pemex would not be able to refinance these amounts on its own because it would have a very high interest rate, so a possible solution is a restructuring with the help of the government through a guarantee or an increase in debt by the federal government.
