It is often said that the vote from the south of the country always puts a candidate in the second round. Is that correct?
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Yes, let’s see, I don’t know if it is the south that puts a candidate in the second round. I would say that the importance of the southern vote allows some candidates to go to the second round. It’s similar, but I don’t think it’s the same. And that has happened in the last electoral processes, with Alejandro Toledo, with Ollanta Humala and clearly in the case of Pedro Castillo. Perhaps the issue is much clearer if we put it this way: In the second round, with the exception of 2006, the candidate the south bets on is the one who ends up being elected president.
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To put it one way, Lima consolidates the candidate who will lead the polls, but does not define who wins the election.
Yes, part of Lima. Because Lima’s vote is usually divided. The vote in Lima, as the largest electoral district, does allow for some candidates to go to the second round, but it is insufficient to win elections.
Now, another thing that is said about the south is that its position is left-wing. Is that or what is really happening is that they want to distance themselves from Lima?
I always remember an opinion on the matter that a colleague, Jesús Manya, from Cusco, has. He told me: In Lima they think we are red, left-wing, when in reality we are anti-centralist. It’s something I share. I believe that the majority vote that has been expressed on different occasions from the south is a vote more for change than for the left. This voting for political proposals and alternatives that some consider anti-establishment or anti-centralist, what it expresses is that it is necessary to modify some things. And that is clearly seen in the vote of Puno, Cusco, Apurimac, and even Arequipa.
In fact, this idea of anti-centralism and voting against what is established is somewhat reflected in the polls. No candidate in the south exceeds 5% voting intention.
I believe that at this moment the south does not have a candidate. None of the 36 options that are trying to participate at the presidential level have managed to present an electoral offer that engages with an important sector of the south. Lima, at this moment, has preferences for one candidate, who is Rafael López Aliaga. That is more or less clear in the polls, but in the case of the south, that does not exist yet.
To put it in one way, if the elections were only held in the south, no party and no candidate today would pass the electoral fence.
That’s right, yes. There are not one or two candidates that have a level of connection with the south, we have not seen that yet. But I think it will happen, as the electoral process approaches and citizens themselves have to choose.
Now, speaking of the surveys, I saw a conversation he had with colleagues from Ojo Público in which they released an interesting piece of information. In December 2020, a few months before the 2021 election, the four main candidates had 40% of voting intentions. Currently, the first four only reach 26%, what is the reason for this lack of interest?
Yes, and if we compare it with what happened in 2011, the situation is even more critical. Because in 2011 the percentage of votes that the first four candidates had months before the election was 70%. Then the percentage has been decreasing and we have reached the current situation. I think this is due to several reasons. Some may have to do with the political crisis, disenchantment, the absence of an electoral offer. But I would add one element. I think that a part of the citizenry perceives that it does not matter too much who becomes president.
As?
Yes, the presidential figure has suffered great wear and tear in our country. So, I believe that there is a sector that realizes that it no longer matters who is president of the Republic, and that in our country presidents are elected to be vacated in one or two years. And, on the other hand, there is a fact of reality: The presidents of our country have less and less power. I would say that it almost doesn’t matter who is president of the Republic, what will matter now is who gets to Congress and in particular to the Senate of the Republic. Maybe that’s what we should pay more attention to right now.
Let’s talk about sectors of the political spectrum. What real possibilities do you see for the left in this election?
In reality, I don’t see candidates on the left or the right who at this moment have a great chance of winning. Unlike what we saw in other elections, what we have now is that no one can be ruled out, because anyone could pass, because very little is required to go to a second round. Now, in the particular case of left-wing groups, I think there are two important findings. The first is that, after a long time we see several parties that call themselves left-wing with electoral registration. On other occasions, there were one or two parties. And yet, despite having managed to formalize the registration, I believe that the left-wing parties have not managed to present a solid, adequate, unifying presidential offer. And I would add something else, looking at the case of the south. After the protests against Boluarte, following the fall of Pedro Castillo, many left-wing parties began to travel to the south and in particular to Puno in an effort to seek political support in that region.
In fact, they profiled Vicente Alanoca as a candidate, but his application was unsuccessful.
Yes, in fact, there were other Puno political parties that had a certain expectation. There is Alanoca in the case of New Peru, but also Fernando Salas, who was forming a political party. Guido Bellido also traveled a lot to Puno. In short, you saw many left-wing leaders going to Puno, on a recurring basis, with the desire to have a political base, but also to identify cadres.
And has that effort been diluted?
Precisely, that intention or that purpose ended up not being realized. And one of the candidates who had the greatest media visibility, Vicente Alanoca, was defeated and failed to secure his participation, despite the fact that, in theory, he embodied the face that the left intended to raise in this process. That, I think, has been a big mistake. The parties that call themselves left-wing have not put a southern face on their political offer.
Now, an important sector of the left has the Constituent Assembly as its main demand. At this moment, when the main cry is the issue of citizen security, would insisting on the Constituent Assembly serve the left?
Let’s see, I would say two things. A sector of the left has made the flag of the Constituent Assembly almost like a surname. For them, if you don’t believe in that, it’s like you’re not a leftist. And they have been repeatedly insisting on this, but what we have seen is that a flag of that nature is insufficient to have an electoral opportunity in our country, especially in a context where there are other issues, like the ones you point out, that generate more concern in the population. There are sectors in the country that are more concerned about extortion issues than the ownership of public companies. What I want to say is that the constituent is an identity signal, but it does not achieve a greater electoral opportunity. And that is because part of the platform that was linked to the Constituent Assembly never had a particular specification, in things that had to do with the day-to-day life of the people.
Let’s go to the other extreme. What chances does the right have in this election?
The right in our country has a high regard for itself right now. They see themselves with many opportunities to win the elections. And when you look at the neighborhood, you see the result in Argentina, in Ecuador, in Bolivia, or in Chile, where right-wing positions have won the elections, because it seems that Peru is next. From that perspective, I would say there is room for optimism on the right. However, these rights are very different from the Peruvian one, they have very different characteristics during electoral times. In some cases, in at least three, in Argentina, in Bolivia and in Chile, the right was in the opposition, they were not the government, and here it is the right that governs, or a part of the right.
The one that is represented in Congress.
Indeed, then this cannot be presented as a fight against caste, as Milei did, because those who are in Congress and in the government are them. Nor can they say, as in Bolivia, that they face a government like that of the MAS, which had been in power for 20 years. There isn’t that here. So I think this doesn’t work automatically. It is not that they win everywhere and, therefore, they will also win here. Does that mean they have no chance? Of course not. As I said a moment ago, we cannot rule out any group.
Now, what is certain is that, at this moment, on the right, there is an oversupply. There are many candidates on that spectrum. Isn’t that your main problem?
At the Institute of Peruvian Studies, we did an analysis of the presidential candidacies, seeking to identify what ideological positions they had, themes of origin, and programmatic proposals. And we tried to build a sort of majority profile of the 36 presidential candidates. And in some cases, up to 70%, depending on the characteristics we measured, that gave us a profile. Let’s say, the average candidate is evidently a man from Lima, over 60 years old, on the right, and who also presents himself as someone who is anti-congress, anti-Fujimorista and anti-Boluarte. And, indeed, the majority of the political offer is located to the right. And it is a right that has found its three ghosts: the caviars, the communists and the populists. So, the large part of the electoral offer ends up repeating this.
Although we must remember that none of these ghosts or supposed enemies are in power, what is in the Palace is Jerí.
Well, José Jerí has not lost the logic of being a congressman. That is, he does not see himself as the Executive. He has not left the congressman’s mentality: Congressmen meet with everyone, congressmen present proposals for declarations of national interest. In other words, a lot of publicity, but little is concrete.
