The dictator Daniel Ortega depends more than ever on commercial relations and rapprochement with the international community, mainly the United States and Central America, to advance or fail in his totalitarian project, although it is the Nicaraguans who must bear the greatest responsibility and actions to stop it, warns political analyst Enrique Sáenz.
Sáenz, in an analysis of the regional context in which Ortega advances with his dictatorial project in Nicaragua, published on his digital platforms, details that the dictator depends to a great extent on his commercial relations with the US and Central America and in addition to the correlation of political forces in neighboring countries such as El Salvador and Guatemala, very important trading partners.
He points out that, after the United States, which is Nicaragua’s main trading partner, the second partner is neither Europe nor Asia but the Central American region, mainly El Salvador and Guatemala, which occupy a prominent position.
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According to BCN data, in 2022, El Salvador ranked second as a trade partner of Nicaragua with US$834.1 million between imports and exports. Guatemala added US$815 million, while Costa Rica added US$746 million between the purchase and sale of merchandise to Nicaragua, while Honduras, whose government, led by Xiomara Castro, has shown political closeness to Ortega, only represents US$379 million between exports and imports.
Taking these data into account, Sáenz considers that what happens in the correlation of political forces in the region is of great importance for political events in Nicaragua.
However, the exiled analyst insists that, to restore democracy in Nicaragua, the greatest responsibility lies with Nicaraguans. “It does not belong to the international community, which can and should play a complementary, important role, but you cannot replace the responsibility that corresponds to Nicaraguans,” he warns.
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And he adds that “the situation in Nicaragua is not going to be resolved in Washington, in Brussels or in Madrid. It will be resolved in Nicaragua, although the international community has played, plays, and is called to continue playing an important role in the fight to restore democracy.”
Likewise, the economist warns that it must be clear that the international community is not a monolithic bloc, nor does it remain invariable over time, but that it changes “according to the political orientation of the different governments” and those governments “are guided by political affinities, economic interests, ideological affinities and even, sometimes, corruption networks.
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Given that an electoral process is taking place in Guatemala and that of El Salvador is approaching, due to the economic importance they have for Nicaragua and because these countries have marked a certain deterioration in the democratic institutionality, the results in these electoral processes are very important for development. of political events in Nicaragua.
“The economic interests that cross the Central American countries are intense and very relevant,” says the analyst and for this reason he warns that “the outcome in Guatemala with the electoral process will have repercussions in the rest of Central America and also in Nicaragua.” .
