A recent survey by Opción Consultores reveals a clear picture of the possible runoff dispute in Uruguay. The presidential ticket of the Frente Amplio, led by Yamandú Orsi, obtained 48% of the preferences, while Álvaro Delgado of the Partido Nacional received 41%. This advantage reflects a potential rotation in power in favor of the Frente Amplio.
The report, presented on Telenoche, highlights that 7% of voters would choose to vote blank or spoiled, and 4% remain undecided. However, the consultancy firm estimates that the 7% of blank or spoiled votes will not be maintained at the time of the election. This difference in electoral preferences between Orsi and Delgado is a decisive factor.
Orsi beats Delgado in new poll in view of second round scenario
The current situation, in which Orsi is leading, contrasts with that of August 2019. At that time, the current president Luis Lacalle Pou was ahead of the Frente Amplio candidate, Daniel Martínez. Despite a 5-point narrowing of the gap between Orsi and Delgado compared to July, the analysis by Opción Consultores suggests a consolidated advantage for the Frente Amplio candidate.
According to the consultancy, the advantage that the Frente Amplio maintains in this possible second round is consistent with the trends observed in the first round. The analysis highlights that voter loyalty is a crucial factor. “Although the FA and the Republican Coalition (CR) are tied in preferences for October, the FA’s loyalty towards the runoff is usually almost perfect,” Opción analyses.
History shows that the Frente Amplio has managed to surpass its first-round record in previous runoffs. On the other hand, the CR has tended to attract fewer votes for the runoff. According to the survey, Delgado would need to attract all the undecided votes to tie the race, a scenario that is considered unlikely.
Trends and projections
Voting trends in favour of Orsi have remained stable since April, registering 48% on three occasions and 50% on another. This indicates a constant support for the Frente Amplio candidate. The capacity of the Republican Coalition to increase its electoral base in this decisive phase will be decisive in any change in the current scenario.
In this context, the strategies adopted by both candidates could redefine the country’s political map. Delgado’s approach must also consider the possibility of vote migration from Orsi. “This eventual migration would have a double effect by subtracting one and adding another,” says the consultancy.
Historically, the Frente Amplio has shown remarkable consistency in the runoffs. This ability to consolidate and expand its support base in the second round is a strategic challenge facing both parties. The survey suggests that, in an even electoral context, the margin of loyalty can determine the ultimate success of the candidates.
