The alliance OPEC+led by Saudi Arabia And Russia, decides this Sunday if the taps continue to open in September, with the markets waiting for the sixth monthly increase in its oil supply since last April.
- The decision is expected to be adopted in a telematics meeting by the ministers of the sector of Saudi ArabiaRussia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.
Those eight key countries of OPEC+ They began on April 1 to reverse old volunteer production cuts despite the risk of pressing the barrel on the prices.
After an increase of 137,000 barrels a day (BD) that month, they accelerated the rhythm of the restitution of the 2.2 million barrels per day (MBD) that withdrew from the market in 2023, multiplying by three the monthly increase, up to 411,000 BD both in May, in June and July, and in August they further squeezed the accelerator to the accelerator to the Raise the pumping In 548,000 BD.
The wide expectations that tomorrow again agree on another climb around half a million barrels per day, completing and even exceeding the volume that had proposed to return to the market, were reflected in the marking cheaper of the “Black gold“This Friday.
The price of the Brent crude barrel closed the last session of the week at $ 69.67, 3.94 % -2.86 dollars- less than at the end of Thursday, while the Texas intermediate oil (WTI) fell 2.79 %, up to $ 67.33.
Commercial tensions
But, according to analysts, not only the fear of an excess supply for the greater pumping of the Organization of oil exporting countries and its allies (OPEC+) press down on the oilbut also the commercial tensions unleashed by the tariff policy of the US President, Donald Trump, and the persistent doubts about the future of the demand for fossil fuels.
All in a context of great nervousness in the midst of Uncertainty Created by multiple geopolitical conflicts, which has resulted in huge pricing volatility this year.
In this situation, The analysts Come a turn in the OPEC+ strategy in favor of recovering market share assuming lower prices, instead of the policy of underpinning prices through strong cuts of extractions.
In addition to the 2.2 MBD of volunteer cuts That it is about to completely restore, the alliance keeps in force until the end of 2026 other reductions by a total of 3.66 MBD and now the question of whether it will continue undoing cuts beyond September.
The recent increases in production have been defended by OPEC+ With an optimistic vision of the demand for medium -term fuels, although it contrasts with a wide skepticism in the sector before signs of a consumption brake.
In your latest monthly report, The OPEC He predicted an interannual growth of planetary consumption of crude oil in 1.24 and 1.22 % in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
The OPEC
- Founded in 1960 in Baghdad by Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait, The OPEC It is today composed of twelve countries. In addition to the five founders, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Nigeria, Libya, Equatorial Guinea, Congo and Gabon also belong to it.
In 2016, after verifying that the fall of the ‘could not stop alone’Petroprecios‘unleashed by the rise of oil In the United States schist, he agreed to cooperate with another ten countries, namely Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Oman, Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Sudan and South Sudan, creating the alliance OPEC+.
For several years, Venezuela, Iran and Libya are exonerated from the commitment to adjust their production due to the involuntary limitations that face their oil industries For various causes, from sanctions to armed conflicts.
