The alliance OPEC++, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, evaluate this Sunday if he maintains his agreement so as not to alter your offer of crude oil in March, amid the sharp rise in the price of ‘black gold’ caused by the escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran.
The decision must be made in a teleconference for the energy ministers and Oil from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, as announced by the Organization of Exporting Countries Oil (OPEC+), based in Vienna.
Despite the increase in the cost of oil by more than 5% this week, analysts They expect the group to reaffirm the freezing of the levels of production for the rest of the current quarter, as they decided in November and confirmed in early January.
The aforementioned countries reverted between April and December 2025, a large part of the voluntary cuts of the pumping that had been applied since 2023 to support ‘petroprices’, with monthly increases that totaled 2.9 million barrels per day (mbd), a volume equivalent to about 2.8% of the production crude oil world.
The group would still have a little more than a million barrels/day left to reverse its voluntary reductions (one of 2.2 mbd and another of 1.65 mbd), but in November, given the strong downward trend in ‘petroprices’, the OPEC++ agreed “pause” the increments in January, February and March 2026.
Geopolitics makes it more expensive oil
The oil prices They closed 2025 with their elders percentage losses since 2020, around 20% annually, due to fears of a glutfueled by increases in the pumping of OPEC++ and the growing extractions in the United States, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Argentina.
To this was added the military intervention from the US in Venezuelaone of the founding countries of the OPEC+earlier this month and the efforts of the Donald Trump Government to encourage investment by US oil companies in the Latin American country, to recover its deteriorated oil industry and increase global supplies, in order to make crude oil cheaper and thus achieve lower inflation.
But the deployment of a great naval fleet American in the Middle East for a possible military action against Irananother founding country of the OPEC+has driven a strong rise in the price of ‘black gold’ this week.
He Brent barrelwhich had started the year at $60.75, closed last Friday at $70.71 and ended the week with gains of 8.64%, adding $5.62.
At the same time, the oil Texas IntermediateWTI) advanced 7.6% ($4.58), up to $65.21/barrel, almost 12% more than its value at the beginning of January.
He Strait of Hormuzin the spotlight
A possible attack on Iranthat with some 3.3 mbd It is the fourth producer of the OPEC+not only raises fears of a cut in the Islamic Republic’s exports, but also puts the Strait of Hormuzthrough which almost 20% of the oil that consumes the world.
A blockadeeven if partial, could trigger the barrel prices towards the 90 or 100 dollars in a matter of days, according to experts. In 2024, tensions between Iran and Israel pushed them to a peak of $91.
Although prices could moderate if Tehran and Washington achieve a agreement about the nuclear war Iranian, tensions remain: Iran He warned this Saturday that his Armed Forces are “with their finger on the trigger” and are closely monitoring the movements of the “enemy”, in reference to the United States.
However, it is not expected that the OPEC++ react to price volatility caused by these and other geopolitical factors, especially the general perception that the global offer crude oil is abundant, in the face of slowing demand.
