Despite a point volatility due to the United States attack on Venezuela and the protests in Iran, the oil price could fall to consolidate below $60 this year, given a saturated market for him glut in the face of slowing demand.
Several analysts consulted by EFE predict that both the Brent crude oila reference in Europe, such as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) could trade at $55 or even less in the first quarter, although they would later rebound to an average of about $60.
Apart from foreseeable temporary increases due to geopolitical riskswhich also include the war in ukraineexperts predict a generally downward trend this year, because a somewhat unusual supply surplus is expected.
The risk premium
After the Washington intervention in Caracas, it was surprising that the oil value did not fire as feared.
“It was immediately seen that the political situation in Venezuela has not derived in civil violence or in significant drops in production, which would have boosted prices,” he tells EFE. Jorge Leonhead of geopolitical analysis at the consulting firm Rystad Energy.
- If the US starts trading on its own, as it says it will, the Venezuelan crude oil confiscated, the result will be to increase the supply even more, which will maintain that downward pressuresays Alan Gelder, Wood Mackenzie specialist.
