Global financial markets reacted this Monday to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by US forces over the weekend, with a significant rebound in the shares of oil and defense companies, while crude oil prices fell due to the expectation of greater supply.
In global markets, shares of major US oil companies saw strong gains in pre-market trading. Chevron led the rally with a jump of up to 8%, while ExxonMobil advanced about 4.2% and Halliburton soared 9%.
Refineries also recorded significant increases, with Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy and PBF Energy rising between 5% and 16%, reflecting the sector’s optimism regarding new business opportunities in Venezuela.
Venezuelan reserves
The enthusiasm in the oil sector responds directly to comments from President Donald Trump, who indicated on Saturday that large American oil companies will be able to enter Venezuela to exploit its vast crude reserves.
“We’re going to have our very large American oil companies, the largest in the world, coming in, spending billions of dollars, fixing the very deteriorated oil infrastructure,” Trump declared from his Mar-a-Lago residence.
Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, with 303,221 million barrels, according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), surpassing Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Venezuelan production has plummeted from 3.5 million barrels a day in the 1970s to about 1.1 million barrels a day last year, just 1% of global supply, due to years of underinvestment and international sanctions.
The geopolitical uncertainty generated by the US military intervention prompted a search for assets considered safe havens. Gold rose more than 2% this Monday, reaching US$4,420 per ounce, approaching the all-time highs recorded at the end of last year.
Silver also saw significant gains, advancing around 4% to $75.50 per ounce, adding to its strong gains so far in 2025.
According to The Guardian, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, noted that markets are barely flinching from the Venezuelan news, although a risk premium is gradually returning to asset prices.
The defense sector also benefited from geopolitical tensions. In Tokyo, defense contractor IHI jumped 9%, while Mitsubishi Heavy Industries advanced 8.4%. In South Korea, shares of defense giant Hanwha Aerospace rose 7%.
The moves reflect investor concerns about possible military escalations and the need for greater defense spending in the region.
Oil falls
In a move seemingly contradictory to the rise in oil stocks, crude oil prices fell on Monday. Brent crude oil for March fell 0.8% to US$60.27 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell 0.9% to US$56.82 per barrel.
The drop reflects market expectations that US intervention will eventually pave the way for an increase in Venezuelan production, which would increase global crude oil supply.
In a note, Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, noted that statements by Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, calling for the country and the United States to work together, suggest that a “smooth transition” could be on the way despite the recent turmoil.
This would increase the likelihood that the United States will lift its blockade on sanctioned tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, putting potential downward pressure on oil prices in the short term.
However, Patterson warned that a “more chaotic transition” could put approximately 900,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan oil supply at risk.
Caution
Despite initial optimism, analysts warned that any significant recovery in Venezuelan oil production will likely take time, given political uncertainty, deteriorating infrastructure and years of underinvestment.
According to the AP agency, Thomas Mathews of Capital Economics noted in a report that “while the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro by US forces has dominated the headlines, financial markets appear undisturbed.” Mathews added that he agrees with the implicit view that the short-term economic and financial implications are minor.
Ali Moshiri, a former top Chevron executive, is reportedly raising $2 billion for Venezuelan oil projects after Trump said Washington would take control of the oil-producing nation, the Financial Times reported.
“I have received a dozen calls in the last 24 hours from potential investors. Interest in Venezuela has gone from zero to 99 percent,” Moshiri told the British newspaper.
Market context
US stock futures pointed higher on Monday. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were trading 14 points higher, S&P 500 futures were up 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures were up 0.7%.
Wall Street was coming off a mixed session on Friday, the first trading day of the year, when the S&P 500 and the Dow closed higher, while the Nasdaq finished just below the flat line.
This week, traders will be keeping an eye on the release of the December jobs report on Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the economy to have added 54,000 jobs last month.
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