The prices of electricity bills and gasoline showed strength in January and caused the month’s official inflation to close at 0.33%, the same level as December. In January 2025, the IPCA had been 0.16%.
As a result, official inflation – measured by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) – accumulated 4.44% in 12 months, within the maximum tolerance limit of the government’s target.
Gasoline exerted the greatest upward pressure, accounting for 0.10 percentage points (pp) of the index, while the cheapest electricity bill represented -0.11 pp
The data was released this Tuesday (10) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), in Rio de Janeiro.
The goal
The inflation target stipulated by the National Monetary Council (CMN) is 3%, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points more or less, that is, a range of 1.5% to 4.5%. Since last November, the IPCA has been within the tolerance limit.
Since the beginning of 2025, the target evaluation period refers to the 12 months immediately past and not just what was achieved at the end of the year (December). The target is considered to be missed if the tolerance interval is exceeded for six months in a row.
Financial institutions interviewed by the Central Bank’s Focus Bulletinestimate that the IPCA should end the year at 3.97%.
The index
The IPCA calculates the cost of living for families with income between one and 40 minimum wages. In total, prices of 377 sub-items (products and services) are collected.
Price collection is carried out in ten metropolitan regions – Belém, Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Vitória, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Curitiba, Porto Alegre – in addition to Brasília, Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís and Aracaju.
