The export engine supports the economy
Even in this context, exports continue to be the main support of GDP. The OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) highlights the strength of non-automotive foreign sales, driven by the better use of the USMCA and by US demand linked to technological sectors such as Artificial Intelligence.
“Non-automotive exports maintain very solid growth, driven by demand from the United States and by the dynamism of the sector linked to Artificial Intelligence,” said González during the presentation of the report.
The central concern: stagnant productivity
The organization emphasizes that productivity continues to be Mexico’s great Achilles heel, a problem that predates the recent situation. Although general inflation has eased, core inflation remains above 4%, which requires maintaining a prudent monetary policy.
“Mexico’s pending task for some time is to strengthen productivity,” said González, in line with the diagnosis of the Mexico chapter of the report.
The first recommendation of the OECD is to move towards a more robust tax system and efficient that allows financing strategic investments. The agency considers it essential to “strengthen tax revenues to continue fiscal consolidation and reinforce areas favorable to growth, such as education and quality infrastructure.” Mexico remains among the OECD countries with the lowest revenue as a proportion of GDP.
The second pillar consists of simplify and digitize regulations to reduce costs, facilitate investment and improve the business environment. The OECD warns that regulatory complexity at the state and municipal level remains a significant barrier. “The important thing is that simplification and digitalization are not only done at the federal level, but also at the state and municipal level,” said González.
The third block of reforms points to human capital. The OECD proposes expanding the vocational education to adapt job skills to the needs of the industry, and strengthen early education to increase female participation in the labor market.
“Vocational training would allow more young people to access quality jobs, and early education would help more women participate in the labor market,” explained the organization’s economist.
Latin America resists, but structural problems continue
At the regional level, the OECD projects growth of 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, with significant risks associated with global trade tensions, political uncertainty and fragile fiscal frameworks.
In its special chapter, the organization points out that the digitalization of the public sector is one of the clearest opportunities to increase productivity in the region. Countries such as Brazil and Colombia are leading these efforts, while Mexico is advancing in the creation of a Digital Transformation Agency.
For the OECD, Mexico has a window of opportunity to benefit from the relocation of investments, but only if it addresses its structural lags. Institutional strengthening, digital integration of the public sector, education and a more solid fiscal framework will be key to raising potential growth. “Mexico needs to promote ambitious structural reforms to lastingly strengthen its economic prospects,” the report concludes.
