One aspect that draws attention to the six gubernatorial elections last Sunday is the absence of surprises. For the contenders, the die seemed to be cast from the start. Throughout the 60 days of the electoral campaign, electoral preferences did not move significantly. Those who started as favorites ended up winning the election.
In some cases, the advantages of pointers were overwhelming. In Oaxaca, Sen. Salomón Jara, candidate of the Morena, PT and Partido Verde coalition, started with an advantage of 40 percentage points, according to the polls.mx survey. He ended up winning the election with 60.2% of the vote against 25.2 for Alejandro Avilés, candidate of the PRI-PRD coalition.
In Hidalgo, Sen. Julio Menchaca, candidate of the Morena, PT and Nueva Alianza coalition began with a 32 percentage point advantage over his closest competitor, Carolina Viggiano, candidate of the PRI, PAN and PRD coalition. Menchaca won the election with 61.6% of the vote, against Viggiano’s 31.3%.
In Quintana Roo, Mara Lezama, municipal president of Cancún and candidate for Morena, PT and Partido Verde, had an advantage of 29 percentage points over her closest follower, the Dip, at the beginning of the campaign. Laura Fernández, candidate of the PAN and PRD coalition. Lezama won with 56.6% of the vote, against 16.1% for Fernández.
Tamaulipas was the state in which things moved the most, although not enough to change the result. The Sen. Américo Villarreal, candidate of Morena, PT and Partido Verde, started with a 21 percentage point advantage over César Verástegui, candidate of the PAN, PRI and PRD coalition. Verástegui had a good finish, but it was not enough to turn the election around. He was 6.8 percentage points behind Villarreal.
In Aguascalientes, the campaigns served to widen the advantage of the leading candidate. The Dip. María Teresa Jiménez, candidate of the PAN, PRI and PRD coalition started 13 percentage points above the delegate of the federal government in the state, Nora Ruvalcaba, Morena’s candidate. In the end, Jiménez won with 53.8% of the vote against Ruvalcaba’s 33.5%.
If a surprise could be expected anywhere, it was Durango. According to the polls.mx survey, when the campaigns began, Esteban Villegas, candidate of the PRI, PAN and PRD coalition, and Marina Vitela, candidate of the Morena, PT and Partido Verde coalition, were in a technical tie. Although Villegas had a higher chance of victory, the confidence intervals crossed.
Everyone expected a photo finish in Durango; the typical election in which not even the INE’s quick count can safely announce a winner. However, the result was anticlimactic. Esteban Villegas won with 53.7% of the vote, 13 points above Marina Vitela.
After Sunday’s election day, little seems to have changed. Morena claimed in Oaxaca, Hidalgo, Quintana Roo and Tamaulipas majorities that were already hers long ago. Her partisan brand shows enormous resilience, despite the poor results of the López Obrador government in terms of economic growth, public security and the fight against corruption.
The opposition parties emerged victorious from the dirty war launched from the National Palace, in retaliation for the defeat of the presidential initiative to return monopoly power over the electricity industry to the CFE. The smear campaign, based on accusations of treason, had no effect on local elections. On the contrary, it served to reinforce the identity of the opposition as a brake on the excesses of the 4T, which instead of results produces one crisis after another.
*Professor at CIDE.
Twitter: @BenitoNacif
Professor
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Dr. Benito Nacif is a professor in the Political Studies Division of the Center for Economic Research and Teaching (CIDE). He was Electoral Counselor of the National Electoral Institute (INE) from 2014 to 2020 and of the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) from 2008 to 2014.
