24/7 Wall St. Projects A Cautious 2025 Followed by Larger Upside Potential Later in the decade, Anchored by Delivery Growth and A Multi-Brand Strategy But Tempered by Competition and Execution Risk.
Headline Forecasts
- 2025 Target: $ 4.21 Based on ~ 60% Revenue Growth and a 1x Price-To-Sales Multiple, implies Modest Decline versus the Price at The Time of Their Analysis.
- 2026–2030 PATH: $ 6.12 (2026), $ 13,80 (2027), $ 24.01 (2028), $ 16.45 (2029), and $ 23.56 (2030), reflecting an s-Curve of Scaling and Later-Cycle Multiple Expansion.
- Valuation Framework: Price-to-Sales Multiples Step Up from 1x in 2025–2026 to 1.5x in 2027–2029 and 2x by 2030, Applied to A Revenue Ramp Modeled From CNY97.1b In 2025 to CNy189.5b In 2030.
Street context
- Analyst 12-Month Targets Cluster Near The Mid- $ 4S With A Range Up To ~ $ 8, and an Overall More Cautious Stance Near Term Compart With The Long-Term Upside Sketched by 24/7 Wall St.
Operating Backdrop and Recent Data Points
- July 2025 Deliveries: 21,017 Units Across Nio, Onvo, and Firefly; Year -to -give Deliveries at 135,167 (+25.2% yoy); CUMULATIVE 806,731 AS OF JUL 31, 2025.
- Brand Mix in July: 12,675 Nio, 5,976 Onvo, 2,366 Firefly; Onvo l90 launch announce with deliveries commencing shortly after.
What Drives The Long-Term Case
- Multi-Band Expansion and International Push are intended to Broaden Addressable Markets While Leveraging Battery-Swap Infrastructure and Technology Investments.
- The Model Assumes Nio Can Translate Delivery Growth Into Higher Revenue and A Re -Ratch of Sales Multiples As Scale and Margins Improve Toward The End of the Decade.
Key Watch Items
- Execution Onvo and Firefly Launches and Subsequent Margin Trabectory, Given Cost Pressure From Expansion.
- Monthly Delivery Cadence vs. Seasonality and Competition in China, as well as The Pace of International Growth.
- WHETHER REVENUE AND PROFITABILITY MILESTONES MATERIZE TO SUPPORT THE STEP-UP IN VALUATION MULTIPLES Embedded in 2027–2030 Targets.
Note: The Figures and Projections Summarized Hemer Reflect 24/7 Wall St.’s Published Framework and Recent Company-Reported Delivery Data; They are not investment advice and remoine sensitive to macro, regulatory, and competitive developments.
