A little more than two months before the last fiscal period begins in which Gustavo Petro will be in charge of the country’s finances, the accounts of the General Budget of the Nation continue to generate doubts among analysts, who reiterate that it is more of the same and that the path of errors of 2025 will be followed again.
The turn on this occasion is for the Anif Economic Studies Center, which in a recent report warns that the Government’s fiscal accounts present the same structural problems of recent years, on fronts such as inflexible spending, overestimated income and growing dependence on debt.
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Although Congress approved the budget for $546.9 billion, after a cut of $10 billion compared to the original project, Anif’s document maintains that the spending plan “lacks credibility,” as it is based on unrealistic assumptions of collection and efficiency; while the approved amount leaves a shortfall of $16.3 billion, which the Executive hopes to finance through a Financing Law that, according to the think tank, will hardly pass Congress.
A budget with more spending and less support
It is worth remembering that the PGN 2026 grew 7% compared to this year and of this item, $358.1 billion went to operations, $100.4 billion to debt service and $88.4 billion to investment. Despite the adjustment agreed upon in the Legislature, Anif warns that spending priorities remain practically the same and that the country is still not moving towards a sustainable budget structure.
Investment is the item that has made the least progress in the National Budget.
Image from ChatGPT
“Among the entities that suffered the greatest cuts are the Ministry of Finance (-2.7 billion), the Ministry of Labor (-2.6 billion), Social Prosperity and the National Public Debt (-2 billion each) and the Ministry of Education (-1.5 billion). In contrast, there were increases for public universities (+1.5 billion), the Attorney General’s Office (+0.6 billion) and the Presidency (+0.23 billion),” they indicated in this regard.
Based on this, they ruled that the reduction does not compensate for the underlying imbalance, explaining that “the budget continues to be built on a base of increasing spending that does not adjust to the fiscal reality of the country” and that the same Autonomous Committee of the Fiscal Rule (CARF) estimated that an additional cut of $45 billion would be needed to meet the deficit goal of 6.2% of GDP.
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On the other hand, the document warns that, if the new Financing Law is not approved, the Government would have to freeze the $16.3 billion defunded, as happened with the PGN 2025, or resort to greater debt. This last option, says ANIF, would be risky, given that the country already registers a debt level of 61.5% of GDP, slightly above the goal set in the Medium Term Fiscal Framework (61.3%).
“The absence of the active fiscal rule and the use of debt to cover current spending increase the vulnerability of public finances,” warns the report, which also insists on the need for a comprehensive reform that expands the tax base, reviews the VAT scheme and improves spending efficiency.
The 2026 National Budget was approved last week in Congress.
Image from ChatGPT
Lagging execution and low investment
Budget execution also worries Anif experts, who point outn that between January and September of this year, the Government has executed 58.7% of the total, an improvement compared to 54.2% in 2024, but with large differences between items: operation and debt reach 63.2%, while investment barely reaches 41.1%.
“The sectors with the worst performance are transportation (31%), registration (32.4%), sports and recreation (37.6%), and agriculture and interior (38.4%). In contrast, health (71.3%) and education (70.7%) lead execution. The low execution capacity limits the impact of public spending on growth and equity,” the report concludes.
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With all this and taking into account that tax collection is not progressing as it should, the report closes by warning that budget delays, approved resources that are not executed and must be paid the following year, increased by $34.9 billion in 2023 to $62.8 billion in 2024; while by 2025, they could be between $35 and $55 billion.
“With this, the next Government will inherit a complex panorama: a budget inflated by unfulfilled commitments, rigid spending and an increasingly narrow room for maneuver. If the course is not corrected, the next administration will have to make drastic cuts to return to the fiscal rule,” Anif concluded.
DANIEL HERNÁNDEZ NARANJO
Portfolio Journalist
