A few days before the crucial runoff in Uruguay, the signing Consultants Option has revealed its most recent study on voters’ electoral preferences. On November 24, the country must decide between the presidential formulas of Yamandu Orsi and Carolina Cosse for the Broad Front, and Alvaro Delgado next to Valeria Ripoll by the National Party. According to the results of the survey, the race is close, with small margins standing out that could be decisive.
Opción Consultores presented its figures last Thursday, which were discussed by Rafael Porzecanski on Telenoche, broadcast on Channel 4. The figures indicate that the 49.7% of those surveyed would opt for Orsi and Cossewhile the 45.5% would support Delgado and Ripollwho have the support of the Republican Coalition, made up of several parties, including the Colorado Party and Cabildo Abierto, among others.
The study also highlights that 4.8% of voters would choose to cancel their vote or leave it blank. This very close election reflects a society divided in its decision, which has generated a climate of expectation and uncertainty in the Uruguayan political scene.
Voter breakdown
The survey delves into the degree of firmness of voters regarding their possible decision in the runoff. Among those who support the Frente Amplio formula, 44% say they are firm in their choice, while 6% are still doubtful. On the other hand, the National Party duo has 40% firm support and 6% undecided.
In addition, an analysis was included on the expected behavior of those who voted for the Republican Coalition in the first electoral round. In this group, 11% would be willing to support Orsi, while 86% would remain loyal to Delgado, and 3% remain undecided.
Factors influencing preferences
The electoral landscape has maintained a certain degree of stability since the previous measurement after the October elections. Opción Consultores highlights that there has been an increase of less than a percentage point in support for Orsi, while the number of blank or annulled votes has experienced a slight decrease.
The firm warns about the necessary caution when interpreting these figures, highlighting that there are three key factors that force the scenario to be considered competitive and open. A crucial element is the margin of error in the estimates, located at +/- 2.2%. This factor implies that when considering the confidence intervals, the margins of both formulas intersect, which means that Orsi’s advantage over Delgado is not definitive.
Within the context of a runoff, where the options are reduced to two candidates, it is highlighted that the margin of error in the difference between the two is twice the margin of error for each candidate. In this case, the difference has a margin of +/- 4.4%, further underlining the uncertainty and the possibility of surprises on election day.
