Colombia is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, as argued by the National Government with its Strategy to 2050, in which experts from the Ministry of the Environment evaluated possible changes in rainfall and temperatures in the long term.
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According to the report made by the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies, Ideam, in the middle of the 21st century, that is, between 2040 and 2070, the annual temperature would increase by 1.6 degrees Celsius.
Failure to stop, or reduce the emissions of Greenhouse Gases, Colombia would lose between $ 4.33 and $ 4.54 billion annually in the 2040-2070 period, as determined by the study consigned in the Strategy to 2050.
These Average Annual Losses (PMA) contemplate the sectors: construction, infrastructure of public services, food and natural resources.
The study estimated that the annual detriment from hurricanes and floods would be equivalent to 7.54% of the budget allocation to housing in 2021, that is, $ 361,920 million.
In the case of losses due to landslides, it would be 1.18% of the transportation item, which corresponds to $ 136,880 million. Regarding droughts, the economic consequences would be $ 22.1 billion. Finally, the loss due to forest fires, for this period, would be around $ 2.76 billion.
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Regarding the damage to ecosystems, Carlos Rivera, director of the Biology department of the Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, affirms that: “If these projections are fulfilled, the most affected ecosystem would be the páramo, which will have a greater impact. There are several models that suggest that in these mountain areas the temperature will be higher than 1.6 degrees “.
The expert also clarified that the increase in temperatures would directly affect the quality of the water. “At the level of aquatic ecosystems, which have a lot of organic matter, high temperatures would cause it to decompose quickly, removing oxygen from this resource”.
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Regarding rains, the report determined that for this period there would be increases in the Andean region. On the other hand, in the Caribbean and the Amazon, rainfall would be reduced by between 10% and 40%. “The reduction in precipitation occurs to a greater extent towards the northeast of the country, while the increase in temperature is greater towards the southeast”, clarified the report.
Rivera agrees with this forecast and clarifies that “The periods of drought and rain will be longer and of greater intensity”.
JULIANA PEÑA
