This week will close with the crucial step that took They will leave everything ready for the discussion in the plenaries of the Senate and the House of Representatives.
The fact that these accounts have been set for an amount of $ 546 billion, a figure that represents a cut of $ 10 billion against the initial proposal presented by the Government has aroused positions found in public opinion, since some see it as a victory of the government and others translate it as a relief to the accounts of the nation and a brake on the excessive expense of this administration.
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The truth is that the background debate just begins and now all eyes are put in the tax reform, which will define where the income will come from to finance that trimmed budget, but that continues to face an environment of enormous political distrust.
While the approval of the PGN in the four economic commissions of the Congress allowed to unlock one of the most tense discussions of recent weeks, there are those who consider that the decision can be taken as a political message in which it was told to the house of Nariño that the budget is supported, but not at any cost.
The Financing Law will be the great debate that comes for the Congress of the Republic.
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Ciro Ramírez, senator of the Democratic Center, was direct in his position and warned that “we do not agree with the amount and we have been saying, but I think it is worse for the country to pass this budget by decree. That is why we are going to accompany this alternative proposal of the Olga representative. ”
In his statement he made it clear, however, that the opposition prepares for a major battle, in which his bases will lay against that “we do not agree and we will vote negative tax reform.” He also indicated that the budget came forward with consensus, but the tax does not have the same support and runs the risk of shipwrecked.
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THE NEW PULSE: THE TAX
The adjustment of $ 10 billion partially reduced the fiscal hole that should be covered With the reform, carrying it from $ 26.3 to about $ 16.9 billion. However, for several congressmen the signal is unequivocal in the face that there will be no majorities to approve new taxes.
Efraín Cepeda, conservative senator and presidential candidate, was sharp by saying that “we eliminated the general provisions, the articles in which they almost had omnivorous powers to do what I wanted with the silver of the budget and with other signed contracts and commitments”
The Financing Law will be the great debate that comes for the Congress of the Republic.
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That said, he said that “that budget is definanced in the $ 26 billion of the tax or $ 16 billion today, because there will be no tax or 26, or 16, or 10, neither five, nor four, nor three, nor two. There will be no Tax reform and the government will have to make the corresponding cuts. ”
Meanwhile, Senator Angélica Lozano also celebrated that the PGN has been approved in Congress and not by decree and stressed that “the good thing is that it comes out of Congress, it goes by law. We fear that it was going by decree? Well, no law was achieved as it should be.”
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Likewise, in addition to the reduction of the amount, he highlighted achievements such as the elimination of several Articles that he considered risky, “we eliminated several dangerous articles, we remove powers that the president does not have today, and here this law was going to give them. We eliminated several articles that leaning the silver of the elections in each department of the country, and we eliminated a pot of jam.”
However, Lozano did not hide his concern by pointing out that “the bad is still an inflated budget, $ 547 billion that does not exist, makes the government maintain the expectation and the idea of approveing a new tax reform, which is inconvenient. The ugly, the danger, the risk that when the tax sink for $ 16 billion pesos, the government says that it will replace them with debt, new debt”.
The Financing Law will be the great debate that comes for the Congress of the Republic.
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What comes out and what enters?
In the House of Representatives, Wilmer Castellanos emphasized the difference between the two debates and said that “one thing is the bill of the general budget of the nation and another, very different, the Financing Law draft”, highlighting that Although consensus were achieved on the amount of PGN, the tax remains a mined field.
“There was already talk of taking several articles from the financing law that we consider are harmful to Colombians. So well, in many of these articles we agree that VAT cannot be approved to gasoline, the VAT of the hybrid cars, the VAT of the concert tickets, the liquor tax, more taxes for the natural and legal persons, especially the small and medium -sized companies,” he said.
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From the Academy, Mauricio Salazar, director of the Fiscal Observatory of the Javeriana UniversityHe offered a more technical look and said that “what we have today is just a first approved debate. There are still three more debates and only until October 20 we will know if that 10 billion cut is maintained. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance already has to start thinking about a new text for the Financing Law.”
Salazar warned that if the budget is finally approved with the cut in the remaining debates, the government could resort to a decree with the original $ 557 billion amount, which would return the need for a tax of $ 26 billion; stressing that “we are in the hands of what happens from here to October 20.”
The Financing Law will be the great debate that comes for the Congress of the Republic.
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Faced with what could be changed, this analyst recalled that the government has talked about limiting the scope of taxes to hydrocarbons, liquors and tobacco; two sectors with strong political impact and economic, but that had been identified as main sources of income.
On the other hand, Salazar put the magnifying glass on the consumption tax, included in the initial proposal. According to the academic, this tax presented a technical error of origin, noting that “an instrument was used for income from the nation to modify territorial income. That would not endure a constitutional analysis.”
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Finally, in the midst of these tensions, the guilds also felt. Jaime Alberto Cabal, president of Fenalco, was one of the most critical in saying that “that strategy for the second consecutive year of presenting the unbalanced budget is a blackmaty vile to Congress to approve a tax reform disguised to level the budget.”
The union leader questioned the low execution of the investment spending and warned about corruption, highlighting that “what Colombians wonder is why instead of suffocating them with more taxes, the belt is not tightened and stop wasting so much money with an execution so poor that it does not reach 70% and with the highest levels of corruption that Colombia has lived in its history”.
The Financing Law will be the great debate that comes for the Congress of the Republic.
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The approval of the PGN of $ 546 billion gave the government a respite and avoided a major institutional shock. But calm is relative and now the real pulse will be fought in the coming weeks, when the tax reform arrives at Congress and The executive’s ability to convince increasingly skeptical majorities is measured.
For now, what seems safe is that the country will continue to be trapped between the need to guarantee resources to finance expenditure and political and business resistance to new taxes. A pulse that, as the Fiscal Observatory summarizes, will only be defined towards October 20.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
