Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath is the most vocal member in this regard: for several months he has shown his concern because the interest rate continues to fall and inflation does not show a clear downward trend, causing analysts to differ about when inflation will converge to the 3% goal.
And while the rest of the members of the Banxico Governing Board are confident that the appreciation of the peso against the dollar and the weak growth of the economy will be enough to contain inflation, experts point out that general inflation will close 2026 above 4%.
Banamex estimates that general inflation at the end of the year will be 4.3% and 4.2% at the end of 2026; December data will be published on January 9.
The greatest impact on inflation in January will be for sugary drinks due to the increase in the IEPS on these drinks: the Ministry of Finance estimates 47.6 billion pesos for this concept and 102.9 billion for taxes on imports.
“As upward risks, we consider that underlying inflation will be above estimates due to greater-than-estimated effects coming from the adjustments to the 2026 Fiscal Package,” Banamex highlighted in a report.
Paulina Anciola, deputy director of Economic Studies at the bank, said in an interview that in the case of tariffs, she hopes that some industries have advanced some inventories that will allow them to cushion the impact of inflation, especially in the first months of the year.
In addition, the recent increase in the minimum wage of 13% will put pressure on the prices of services, especially tourism and restaurants, which are sectors that employ workers with this type of salary.
It will be key to see how inflation behaves in January or February to see what Banxico can do later
Paulina Anciola, deputy director of Economic Studies at Banamex.
Despite all the concerns about inflation, it seems that salvation lies in the behavior of the exchange rate: analysts estimate that throughout the year these inflationary pressures will be partially offset by the appreciation of the peso against the dollar.
“We have to pay attention during the year to see how strong the peso can be maintained and see the effect that the change in stance will have in Japan,” Anciola added.
Japan is raising rates after not doing so for years and that could hurt the exchange rate. “As long as the dollar remains weak, which we expect for next year, the peso can be favored.”
