The reduction in spending on imports of products whose prices have cooled in recent months has led the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC) to project a record trade surplus (exports minus imports) in 2023. The first estimate of the year predicts a surplus of US $84 billion.
The projection will be updated every three months. If confirmed, the surplus will be 36.8% higher than the positive balance of US$ 62.31 billion registered in 2022so far the best result in history.
The trade balance should rise because imports will fall more than exports. The government projects exports of US$ 325 billion in 2023, down 2.8% compared to the US$ 334 billion exported by the country last year. On the other hand, imports are expected to reach US$ 241 billion, a decrease of 11.8% compared to the US$ 273 billion purchased from abroad in 2022.
Factors
According to the director of the Foreign Trade Planning and Commercial Intelligence Department at the MDIC, Herlon Brandão, two factors account for three of the record balance. On the one hand, the prices of energy commodities such as oil and items such as fertilizers are on a downward trend after reaching a peak at the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine. On the other hand, the economic slowdown should cause a significant drop in imports, due to the retraction in consumption.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has impacted imports in recent months. The international prices of fertilizers fell 24.4% in March, compared to the same month last year. The average price of imported fuels decreased by 6.2% in the same comparison. The average price of wheat, another product that Brazil imports in large quantities, rose 12.2%, but slowed down compared to last year, when the increase in 12 months reached 60% at times.
