The Economic Policy Secretariat (SPE) of the Ministry of Finance reduced the growth estimate for the Brazilian economy this year from 2.4% to 2.3%. The forecast is contained in the Macrofiscal Bulletin, released this Friday (6) by the Economic Policy Secretariat (SPE) of the Ministry of Finance. In relation to inflation according to the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the document projects a reduction in inflation to 3.6% in 2026.
“For 2026, the expectation is for stability in the growth rate and continued disinflation, enabling a reduction in basic interest rates”, says the SPE.
THE basic interest rate, the Selicis currently set at 15% per year by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank (BC). It is the BC’s main instrument for achieving the inflation target, which is 3%.
It is the highest Selic level since July 2006, when it was at 15.25% per year. In a statement, Copom confirmed that it should begin reduce interest at the March meeting, if inflation remains under control and there are no surprises in the economic scenario.
In relation to the performance of the economy, according to the SPE, the reduction in the projection for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, sum of the wealth produced in the country) reflects the sharp slowdown in agricultural activity after the record 2025 harvest, offset by greater expansion of industry and services.
“Domestic absorption tends to accelerate, although partially offset by a lower contribution from exports in a more restrictive global trade environment”, says the bulletin.
“Among the main risks for the 2026 scenario are the intensification of geopolitical and commercial tensions, in addition to a more pronounced slowdown in the Chinese economy. A possible resurgence of geopolitical tensions observed at the beginning of the year, marked by political instability in Venezuela and the increase in friction between the United States and Europe around Greenland, tends to intensify the weakening of the dollar and increase international financial volatility”, he adds.
Inflation
Regarding the inflation projection of 3.6% for this year, the SPE explains that: “prices should still benefit from the global excess supply of goods and fuels and the lagged effects of the recent weakening of the dollar and monetary policy [controle da inflação por meio da alta da Selic]although moderate pressures on food prices are expected”.
In 2025, the IPCA accumulated an increase of 4.26%.
