2023 will be less favorable for mining, as it will be a year with more social conflicts, in addition to other factors that would play against the sector. This is what the Renta 4 stockbroker company foresees, according to what was advanced to Peru21 by the head of Research, César Romero Manchego.
“The conflict should continue to rise. The production of metals has fallen, we believe the results of the mining companies will be affected by this greater conflict,” Romero explained.
A drop in international prices would be added to the scenario forecast for 2023 despite the recovery observed in recent months.
“In the first quarter there was a ‘cushion’ thanks to the increase in commodity prices, which have been recovering again in recent weeks. We would believe that these prices could fall a bit due to the global economic slowdown and, on the other hand, production should remain relatively affected. Only quallaveco It can probably hold, given that it is a new operation, but, overall, next year at least we are not recommending the mining sector for investment,” explained the analyst at rent 4.
regional authorities
Another aspect to consider is the new regional authorities that will begin operations in a few weeks and how much they can contribute or not to reduce conflict and be in favor of mining.
In a look at the results of the second round of elections in the regions, Renta 4 recalled that these can have an effect on the management of conflict and influence the actions of mining companies.
Romero explained the case of Cusco, where there are operations such as Antapaccay and Constancia, Glencore and Hudbay Peru. In that region, he specified, the candidate who was considered less positive won, since the other, Edy Cuellar, president of the Cusco Chamber of Commerce, had a clear position in favor of unlocking the Southern mining corridor.
“He (Cuellar) was seen favorably by the market, but the other one, who ended up winning, Werner Salcedo, is seen as virtually neutral so far (…). Since he did not win the one that was in favor of unlocking, the situation ends up being a bit gray, ”he commented.
Another similar scenario can be seen in Cajamarca, where the virtual winner is Roger Guevara, from Somos Perú. Although in this case there was no pronouncement by the candidate against the sector, there was an accusation against him that he was involved in the Conga case. “In the end it is something that only ended in accusation and we do not see anything that could affect Newmont, who is there with Yanacocha,” he said.
For former Vice Minister of Mines Rómulo Mucho, improving the management of social conflicts falls not only on the national government, but also on regional authorities.
“They must also get involved (…). In social conflicts, much is asked of Lima, but the regional governors have done little. Las Bambas has lost a lot, Apurímac has lost a lot; not so much Cusco ”, he asserted.
Keep in mind
-Until October, the Ombudsman’s Office registered 218 social conflicts, which increased by 20 cases compared to the same month of 2021 and have been on the rise since May of this year (205).
-Of the total conflicts, 141 are socio-environmental and most are related to the mining sector, where 94 cases are identified, representing 66.7% of the total, and of this group, 73 are active and 21 are latent. Cusco has 20, Cajamarca has 10 and Moquegua 6.
