As soon as the financing law collapsed in the Congress of the Republic and the Government lost the source to generate the $12 billion it needs in next year’s Budget, the analysts’ question was what It was going to be done with that remainder in the expense accounts that is defunded.
Among the alternatives, each one with its pros and cons, the ones that have the most strength They took were the postponement, which was even mentioned by Congress when they asked former minister Ricardo Bonilla to withdraw the project and leave it for the next semester, and the cutback, which is seen as a drastic, but necessary path.
More information: National Budget must return to 2023 levels to comply with the fiscal rule
Not in vain do the Autonomous Fiscal Rule Committee propose that more than $50 billion must be adjusted in 2025 expenses and reduce the Budget to levels slightly higher than 2023, taking into account that at this time there is no money and that they cannot make the mistakes of overestimating income generating capacity again.
“A fiscal adjustment of $52 billion (2.9 points of GDP) is required to comply with the fiscal rule regarding the PGN 2025. The final fiscal indicators of this year will impact the situation in 2025. The gap between the expected collection and the goal of tax revenues for 2024, which was used to program the PGN 2025, “It translates into a lower income base compared to what had been projected,” they stated.
Negative presentation of the financing law before the economic commissions.
Cesar Melgarejo
What does the Government say?
Although the proposal that has gained the most force among analysts and experts is to cut and see if resources can be added in the future, the Ministry of Finance recently made it clear that it will risk postponing, just as it did this year, as the $20 billion that it froze in the middle of the year and that it finally ended up cutting, along with another $8.4 billion, for a total of $28.4 billion.
In statements to the media, Minister Diego Guevara He indicated that “starting next year, the validity immediately begins, since a postponement will be made for those $12 billion, that is, we start on the playing field with the $511 billion.”
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This official added in other statements that “I am a finance portfolio, where I make assignments and I do not enter into the transportation sector debate about what is removed and what is not, what is removed from communications and what is not. “That is a dialogue already within the heads of planning of each portfolio who will have to meet with us, prioritizing government programs.”
In this way, we must now wait for the measure to be announced by the National Government, which must be given before December 31, as ordered by the Organic Budget Statute.
Minister of Finance, Diego Guevara
MinHacienda
could fall
In order to know if the postponement is an appropriate measure or not, Portafolio consulted Professor Henry Amorocho, an expert in Public Finance at the Universidad del Rosario, who warned that perhaps this is not the way, since it exposes the General Budget of the Nation to unnecessary risks, such as falling in the Constitutional Court.
“That is a determination that leaves it at $511 billion in availabilitybut not in appropriations and I imagine that they will want to cover it later with an additional budget. However, what is run is the risk of the study in the Constitutional Court,” he explained.
Regarding what would happen in the high court, this academic highlighted that “it could be overturned because a budget was approved by defunded decree, even though the financing law had already been rejected. It is possible that the Court considers it unconstitutional, although we would have to wait for what the judge decides.”
However, for this teacher, it must be kept in mind that this year there will be a large amount of unexecuted resources, which would serve as a cushion to cover the fiscal gap in the 2025 Budget, although he noted that It is necessary to wait until the year ends and the current validity period is defined.
