According to Banxico data, Mexican copper exports and their manufactures reached 2,455 million dollars in 2024.
The Ministry of Economy estimates that almost 60% addresses the United States. However, when the products not affected by the measure, the most added value, the tariff impact only 38%are excluded. The rest is safe. Especially the refined copper, the most valuable item on the list. That was the first crack that weakened the Trump effect.
But the central business of Mexican metal is not there. It is below. It is in the mines. In the deep veins that support the country’s metal wealth. Copper minerals and concentrates generated $ 4,925 million in exports in 2024. That amount does not go to the United States. It goes to the other side of the world. China, Japan, Philippines, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore bought $ 3.1,125 million.
The United States barely added half a million. The commercial route does not cross the northern border. Cross the Pacific.
China is the biggest buyer. In 2024 it absorbed more than 2.3 billion dollars in Mexican minerals and concentrates. The difference is abysmal. The United States matters copper, yes. But Mexico is not its main source.
In the geography of copper, Latin America rules. Chile, Peru, Canada and Mexico, all with commercial agreements with Washington, explain almost all of their external purchases. And even so, the northern country does not achieve self -sufficient. It depends on imports for 45% of its annual consumption.
The Commerce Department justified the measure with national security arguments. He assures that copper is critical for defense, infrastructure, clean energy and artificial intelligence. Proclamation includes a mandate: From 2027, at least 25% of copper produced in the United States must be sold within the country. This percentage will rise to 30% in 2028 already 40% in 2029.
Trump also ordered to establish export licenses for high quality scrap and create a mechanism to include more products in the tariff list. The intention is to contain the commercial deficit and stop external dependence.
But experts warn that this policy may fail. According to Fastmarkets, the United States would need at least a decade to achieve copper self -sufficiency, even with aggressive investments. The country has reservations, yes. But it lacks industrial capacity to process them. Meanwhile, demand does not expect. He shoots.
Each data center may require up to 27 metric tons of copper. Just to build that digital infrastructure, the United States may need a million tons around 2030. Copper ceased to be another metal. Today is key to clean technologies, electromobility and energy transition.
In that scenario, closing the doors to the allies is contradictory. The World Economic Forum warns that the imposition of tariffs will not resolve the imbalance between supply and demand. Nor will it eliminate tension with key partners. Less when China already controls a good part of the global refining. More commercial pressure on Mexico could further encourage the strengthening of the Asia – Latin America axis.
Mexico does not respond. It demands nothing. Simply follow your course to extract, process and embark. In 2024, the national copper production reached 717,332 tons, an increase of 2.6% compared to the previous year. Sonora contributes 80.1% of the total. Cananea and Nacozari dominate. Zacatecas occupies the second place with 10.2% of the volume. San Luis Potosí appears in third place with 3.9%.
Grupo Mexico leads with 78% of production. Capstone Copper, Nemisa, Peñoles and Minera Frisco follow him, according to Camimex data.
Copper occupies 26.5% of the total value of national mining. Only gold and silver overcome it. Together, mining represents 2.77% of national GDP and 8.7% of industrial GDP. The industry grows. It diversifies. And moves without friction towards Asia. The commercial map has already changed, although political proclamations have not noticed it.
In Washington, Trump tightens. In Mexico, the mines produce. The concentrators work. The cargoes turn to Asia, and almost nothing to the United States.
