For 2023, the Treasury estimates that an increase of 100 basis points will leave an extra cost for the public debt of 34.7 billion pesos (mdp), equivalent to 0.11% of GDP.
The percentage of GDP that it absorbs is the highest, within other sensitivities of public finances that the Treasury evaluates, and that it published in the General Precriteria for Economic Policy recently delivered to Congress, to start the design of the 2023 economic package.
The Treasury estimated that programmable spending will increase by 2023 by 255,663 million pesos compared to what is expected for 2022, due to a higher financial cost related to higher interest rates, and an increase in participations to states and municipalities derived from higher federal collection shareable.
In addition to the interest rate, for Mexico the variables on which its finances most depend are economic growth, inflation, and the price and production platform of oil.
“These estimates are indicative and within a limited range of variation. It is important to note that reference is made to isolated effects of each of the factors without considering the interaction that exists between them and other factors that affect budget revenues and debt”, indicates the agency in the document.
GDP
For the following year, the Treasury forecasts a GDP growth of 3.5%.
A real growth rate of the economy that is half a percentage point higher implies a variation in non-oil tax revenue of 22,200 million pesos, equivalent to 0.07% of GDP.
Oil rig
The result of a variation in the oil platform of 50 million barrels per day on crude oil revenues is 22,400 million pesos, equivalent to 0.07% of GDP.
For the oil platform, a production of 1,851 million barrels per day is expected, and for the export platform, 764,000 barrels per day.
Petroleum
For the price of the Mexican oil mix in 2023, the Treasury forecasts an average price of 61.1 dollars per barrel.
The net effect of the variation of one dollar in the annual average price of oil on public sector oil revenues is 12,500 million pesos, equivalent to 0.04% of the estimated GDP for 2023.
Exchange rate
The net effect on the public balance derived from an appreciation in the exchange rate of 20 cents is -7,700 million pesos, equivalent to -0.02% of GDP, considering the effect of oil revenues and the financial cost of the public sector.
