“Mexico’s economic growth was favorable in the four quarters of last year, with the second quarter being the most dynamic, with growth rates of 1.2% and accumulated growth of around 3% of GDP,” the official said in a statement. issued this Tuesday afternoon.
The Mexican economy is struggling to return to pre-pandemic levels and consolidate sustained growth: in 2020, GDP sank 8.2%, to later rebound 4.8% in 2021, so if the 3% advance is confirmed, it would still be below the pre-Covid era.
For this 2023, the outlook looks bleak, since fears of a recession in the United States could further damage the performance of Mexico, and where analysts expect growth close to 1%.
With lower demand for these goods, Mexico will see a slowdown in its exports and lower growth, recently considered Carlos Capistrán, chief economist for Mexico and Canada at Bank of America Securities (BofA).
On the remittance side, unemployment is expected to rise in the United States and dollar remittances to the country begin to decline. Remittances to Mexico already represent 5% of the country’s GDP, said the manager.
“Economic activity recovered significantly, with tourism being the main source of income, with an increase of 45% compared to the previous year, followed by exports from the automotive sector and remittances,” added the head of the Treasury, who participated in the 27th Santander Latin America Conference that takes place in Cancun, Quintana Roo.
Mexico is strongly positioned to take advantage of nearshoring, considering factors such as non-oil exports, mainly manufacturing and automobiles to the United States, which are maintaining a significant recovery, in contrast to the decline registered by China, said Ramírez de la O .
Regarding the external debt, the head of the Treasury estimated that it will continue “stable and at sustainable levels”, below 50% in relation to GDP, one of the lowest percentages among the OECD countries.
