But in the long term, analysts say, Mexico has some influence, particularly on migration, that could help dilute some of Trump’s promises in areas such as trade and security.
“What we know about Trump is that he is transactional,” said Mariana Campero of the Americas Program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Campero added that Sheinbaum, who took office in October, will benefit most from following the example of his political mentor and predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Known as AMLO, the former president found a way to work with Trump during the Republican’s first term (2017-2021), exercising greater law enforcement on immigration and moving relations away from US economic policy options that would have been most detrimental to Mexico.
“Sheinbaum could say, ‘Okay, Mexico can take in (deported) Mexican citizens, but you won’t impose tariffs,'” Campero said.
Mexico could also lean on American companies, many of which benefit significantly from the North American trade agreement, USMCA, to push for large tariff increases.
The current USMCA was negotiated during the Trump administration and ended up being much less harmful to Mexico than Mexican officials had initially feared. The USMCA will be reviewed in 2026 and those conversations will be a key moment in the relationship between Sheinbaum and Trump.
“I would hope that the government could, throughout 2025 and into 2026, try to develop a much more defined and much more aggressive action to identify allies in Mexico, in the United States (…) who could be good interlocutors with Trump,” said Antonio Ocaranza, analyst and former spokesperson for former Mexican president Ernesto Zedillo.
Sheinbaum’s appointment of Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard – AMLO’s former foreign secretary who has personal experience dealing with Trump – was seen as a powerful signal that Mexico is preparing for the review of the USMCA, analysts said.
China, drugs and security
But another area of potential tension is China.
Despite American pressure, Mexico has allowed Chinese companies to expand their presence in recent years and is considering an incentive program open to companies from any country interested in investing in its territory.
Meanwhile, Trump has promised a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and one of at least 10% on all other imports.
Mexico’s incentive program to attract investments, which does not exclude China, could put the Latin American country on a collision course with the Trump administration.
