Mexico retains the zero rate for 84.4% of its exports, provided they comply with the rules of origin of the T-MEC, said the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard. But strategic sectors face another reality. Steel, aluminum and copper have a 50%tariff.
Cars assembled with parts not originating in the region, one of 25%. And that, without counting open research in semiconductors, pharmaceutical and aerospace, in which at any time Trump can implement another tariff.
To this is added the 17% tariff to tomato That he entered into force on July 14, although for different reasons, that is, it is not related to the reasons for the traffic of fentanyl, or national security or commercial deficit, it was for reasons of dumping, but it is a weight sector for the agri -food exports of Mexico.
The automotive in check
“We are already 25% of tariffs under section 232 for vehicles that are not 100% originally from the United States,” warns Mónica Lugo, former T-MEC.
While the European Union negotiated a cap of 15% In the same item, Mexico was caught in a higher threshold, although it is part of the regional bloc. “You have to start seeing things by sector. In the automaker there is already a disadvantage,” he says.
For Roberto Zapata, ex -Mexican from Mexico to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the problem does not lie in what was achieved, but in what remains unsolved. The 90 -day deadline could become a disjection factor for investment. Companies can start weighing if they are still favorable export from the country.
In the first instance, what is not being fixed is what Mexico exports to the non-protection of the T-MEC, but under what was previously known as the most favored nation regime, that is, that of the WTO
Roberto Zapata, former Mexican from Mexico to WTO.
There was a 2.5% tariff that will not enter T-MEC and now is 25%.
Zapata also recalls that the T-MEC includes specific provisions to guarantee preferential treatment in case of measures under section 232, which is what the United States occupied in vehicles and auto parts, which is even for all. “That was already planned and accepted by the Trump administration and is not being respected,” he says. In its reading, Mexico must rethink its negotiating strategy based on these breaches.
César Remis, former head of the T-MEC office at the Mexican embassy in Washington, agrees that the agreement offers a respite, but not a solution.
It would have been good if it wasn’t just a pause. Uncertainty is still there. The fact that other countries have already reached agreements put us at a disadvantage
César Remis, former head of the T-MEC office at the Mexican embassy in Washington.
Comparisons are less and less favorable. South Korea, Japan and the United Kingdom – all key automobile producers – already secured better conditions for their exports to the United States.
In the numbers, the automotive exports of Mexico already reflect the impact of tariffs, according to the data of the INEGI trade balance, in the first six months of the year they show a 4% drop compared to the same period of 2024.
Greater pressure
César Remis warns that the 90-day extension coincides with the formal start of the T-MEC review, which adds tension. According to US legislation, on October 1, public hearings that will mark the tone of the revision that paints a renegotiation must begin.
“We are negotiating under pressure,” he says.
Mónica Lugo says that a firm negotiating team and a solution of all tax tariffs are needed, which are clearly violates the agreement before the formal start. In your perspective, what is not resolved can be assumed as automatic concession.
I do not see the end of the T-MEC, but a more protectionist trade
Mónica Lugo, exnegociator of the T-MEC.
Roberto Zapata foresees a complex review. “From October we will know the official and private sector concerns. With that, the United States will design its negotiating strategy.”
Meanwhile, Trump retains his most effective letter: ambiguity. “That is the perverse part that you love. Have the uncertainty to control,” says Mónica Lugo. It has not been made public what they are asking. It is so volatile that it seems that it depends on how it wakes up.
“We do not know for sure what you want, behind closed doors, what they are discussing with the authorities. If you want the head of a capo in particular, if you want certain specific arrests or certain confiscated shipments.”
Mexico is still a natural logistics partner for the United States. But if the tariff advantage disappears completely, its appeal can begin to weaken. In that scenario, the extension does not represent a victory, but just a truce under threat.
Marcelo Ebrard described as “very big” the diplomatic achievement that allowed Mexico to extend, for 90 days, its preferential tariff access to the US market. He said the country did not yield new concessions. He highlighted the firmness of President Sheinbaum during her call with Donald Trump, and considered that the agreement positions the country over others.
However, from Washington the message was different, the Sheinbaum government did yield to something. Trump said Mexico agreed to eliminate numerous non -tariff barriers, without specifying which.
The US president demands results in the extension and left open the possibility of an extension only if there are clear commitments. In parallel, safety and migration cooperation will remain unchanged. Mexico now avoids new punishments, although under conditions that still tense the relationship.
Mónica Lugo points to an analogy that portrays the current climate: “It’s like having a gangster pointing to a gun in your head while negotiating.”
