According to the economic scenarios for Mexico contemplated in the firm, it prevails that the country will maintain its investment grade of all rating agencies in 2022, in addition to the fact that there will be minimal intervention and marginal revisions to commercial issues.
The risks lean towards the decrees and appointments in order to take root the legacy of the 4T, that is, the political issues.
GDP growth of 1.5% is estimated for the end of 2022, and inflation greater than 7%. For Banxico’s reference rate, they estimate that it will reach 8.5%, with the aim of containing inflation.
Regarding the Mexican economy, he highlighted that the lack of support during the pandemic is seen in the slow recovery of GDP. And that if inflation stops consumption, it will be more difficult for the economy to rebound.
“I don’t know if it’s consolation, or if some measure could be taken to encourage this growth, it’s not something we see, or it will be discounted soon, the recommendation is to invest in Mexico compared to other Latin American economies, due to its proximity to the United States, the exchange rate, and the issue of remittances”, commented the analyst.
The analyst highlighted that reaching the 3% inflation target rate of the Bank of Mexico is not expected for this year, given that global pressures continue due to the war in Ukraine, and inflation will not subside until begin low and stabilize the prices of raw materials around the world.
