According to the agency, three options would be on the table: a total cessation, a reduction or keeping shipments unchanged.
CDMX, Mexico. – The Government of Mexico is reviewing whether to maintain oil shipments to Cuba in the face of growing fear, within the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum, that the United States will adopt retaliation for that policy, according to three sources familiar with the discussions cited by the agency. Reuters.
The review comes after a U.S. blockade of oil tankers in Venezuela in December and the capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro this month halted Venezuelan shipments to Cuba, leaving Mexico as the largest supplier to the island, which is facing the biggest energy crisis in its history.
Mexico’s role, Reuters adds, placed the country at the center of Washington’s attention. US President Donald Trump has insisted that Cuba is “ready to fall,” writing on January 11 in Truth Social: “There will be no more oil or money for Cuba. Zero!”
Although Sheinbaum has publicly defended that shipments will continue – noting that they are based on long-term contracts and are considered international humanitarian aid – sources consulted by Reuters maintain that the policy is subject to internal review due to anxiety in the cabinet over the risk of antagonizing Trump.
According to the report, three options would be on the table: a total cessation, a reduction or keeping shipments unchanged, without it being known yet what the final decision will be.
The Mexican Presidency told Reuters that the country “has always been in solidarity with the people of Cuba” and that both the shipment of oil and a separate agreement to pay for the services of Cuban doctors “are sovereign decisions.” The source adds that the Cuban government did not respond to a request for comment.
The report also links the debate to the bilateral moment: Mexico seeks to negotiate a review of the Mexico-United States-Canada Treaty and, at the same time, tries to convince Washington that it is doing enough against the cartels and that US military action in Mexican territory “is neither welcome nor necessary.”
In this context, Reuters points out that Trump increased the pressure by stating that Mexico “is run by the cartels” and that ground attacks against them could be imminent, something that Sheinbaum has described as a red line for the country’s sovereignty.
According to two of the sources, Trump questioned Sheinbaum in a phone call last week about crude oil and fuel shipments to Cuba and the presence of thousands of Cuban doctors in Mexico. According to sources cited by Reuters, Sheinbaum responded that the shipments are “humanitarian aid” and that the doctors’ agreement “fully complies” with Mexican law. Furthermore, the same sources added that Trump did not directly ask to stop deliveries.
The sources cited by the agency also indicated concern in the Mexican Government about a greater presence of US Navy drones over the Gulf of Mexico since December. Local media, using flight tracking data, would have reported that at least three Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton drones made a dozen flights over the Bay of Campeche, approximately following the route of the tankers that carry Mexican fuel to Cuba. Those same aircraft, Reuters adds, were seen off the Venezuelan coast in December, days before the United States attack on that country.
Cuba relies heavily on imports of refined fuels for electricity generation, gasoline and aviation fuel. US sanctions coupled with the economic crisis have prevented the Cuban government from purchasing enough fuel for years, forcing it to rely on a small group of allies. Within Sheinbaum’s government, the report says, there is a belief that Washington’s strategy of cutting off oil to Cuba could lead to an “unprecedented humanitarian disaster” that would trigger mass migration to Mexico, which is why some officials would push to maintain at least part of the supplies.
Sheinbaum declared on Wednesday at his usual press conference: “Very little of the crude oil produced in Mexico is sent to Cuba, but it is a form of solidarity in a situation of hardship and difficulty.” And he added: “That doesn’t have to go away.”
Between January and September of last year, Mexico sent 17,200 barrels a day of crude oil and 2,000 barrels a day of refined petroleum products to Cuba, worth approximately $400 million, according to information reported by PEMEX to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
