The world this week was close to starting a commercial war. The president of United States, Donald Trumpratified the tariffs he had announced during his campaign: 25% to Canada and Mexico, and 10% for China.
It is important to keep in mind that the mentioned nations are part of the most important business partners for the American country: they represent 40% of the total for the United States in Latin America, in 2023, Mexico, Brazil and Chile They were the most relevant economies.
The president, however, extended the decision for a month to negotiate with the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, and The president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum. China, on the other hand, replied the measure with tariffs of 15% to coal and LPG; It also imposed 10% of oil, cars and agricultural machinery.
In the midst of this commercial context, ECLAC said that US exports to Latin America and the Caribbean They fell at least 5% for 2023 and went from 527,060 million to 501,710 million dollars.
“The supplies and industrial materials and as well as capital goods are the two main categories of US exports to the region and represent more than 70% of external sales,” reads the study of ECLAC.
Supplies and industrial materials had a contraction of 18.3% in 2023. An improvement in the Automotive vehiclesspare parts and engines, which grew 11.3%. These articles are precisely some of the most affected by possible Trump tariff measures.
In the case of Colombia, the country was in fourth place in importance Commercial for the United States. in 2023. The country represented 17,822 million dollars in exports and 16,318 million dollars in imports. The total trade of goods between the two nations added 34,773 of dollars. It is important to remember that the President of the Republic, Gustavo Petro, also had a conflict with Trump for the supposed delivery of deportees in “inhuman” conditions. As a result, the American president threatened to put up to 50% of tariffs on Colombian products. However, the officials of both countries reached an agreement and the sanctions were not ratified.
The three largest partners
Mexico, Canada and China are the main economies that have commercial relations with the United States: these three nations represent up to 40% of the total of the American country. The participation of Mexico and Canada increased in recent yearsS, but China’s had a 11.1% drop in 2023. The decrease is explained mainly by geopolitical tensions between the United States. and China. There is a commercial deficit of goods with China, the largest of all commercial partners (278,720 million dollars).
A shot in the foot
Both analysts and leaders of the world qualify an imposition of tariffs, especially Mexico and Canada, such as A “foot shot” by the United Statesnot only because it is its main commercial partners, but because of world trade was contracted for 2023.
He International Monetary Fund It expects that trade in 2024 could have growth as inflationary pressures fall in the world. Commercial and political tensions will be the main obstacle.
