The recent ones Tariffs announced by the United States To key products such as steel, aluminum and cars have reactivated alerts in bilateral trade with Mexico. However, beyond political tensions, the current scenario could be brewing a Strategic opportunity for the Mexican economy.
According to the most recent base bank analysis: “Tariffs, exports and the possibility of a new Nearshoring opportunity for Mexico”he Immediate impact Of these new taxes is less than many anticipated, which reconfigures the approach from a threat to a window of opportunity.
More than 83.9% of Mexican exports to the US are free of tariffs
According to the report, despite the advertisements, 83.9% of Mexican exports to the US continue to enter without tariff, and the average effective tariff is only 4.34%. This data reinforces the competitiveness of Mexican products in front of other markets.
However, sectors such as the automotive have begun to resent the effects, with a 4.04% contraction in the first half of 2025, which could modify investment flows in the short and medium term.
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Mexico, United States number one business partner
The Imports Americans from Mexico They grew at 12,912 million dollars Between January and May 2025, compared to the same period of 2024. Today, Mexico represents 14.63% of the total imports of the US, consolidating itself as its main supplier.
As for the tariff load, Mexico It occupies the position 22 Among the 35 countries With greater volume of imports towards the US, indicating a moderate load against key competitors.
Opportunities for foreign investment
Despite the current scenario of the US protectionist policy, in the first quarter of the year the aggregate demand data showed that Exports gave impulse to growth of Mexican GDP.
The current situation presents a Fertile land to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). The direction of the FDI will be determined by the way in which supply chains are redistributed to tariff changes.
While the automotive industry could suffer a deceleration, more dynamic sectors and less exposed to tariffs could capture the attention of new capitals, promoting a second wave of Nearshoring, focused on industries other than those that starred in the first stage.
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Computer Industry, Real Nearshoring opportunity
Protectionist policy also generates opportunities in the computer sector, particularly in heading 8,471 (automatic data processing machines), where Mexico leads with a 38.9% participation of the total imports from the United States.
Between 2017 and 2025, total American imports in this game grew 85.54%, while those from Mexico increased 166.57%. This translates into a remarkable advance in the participation of departure 8471 in Mexico’s exports to the United States, rising from 5.78% in 2017 to 14.17% in 2025.
The above could accelerate the growth of FDI In this sector in the coming years. Likewise, components for computer development could begin to be manufactured in Mexico instead of being imported, which could further boost this investment.
The actions to undertake
In order for these opportunities to translate into sustainable growth and real competitive advantages, Mexican companies must consider the following key elements:
- Logistics infrastructure that allows efficiency in times and costs.
- Legal certainty that supports long -term decisions.
- Macroeconomic stability, especially in labor and fiscal issues.
In addition, Mexico’s geographical advantage, by sharing border with the United States, allows you to reduce delivery times and maintain more resilient and agile supply chains.
For companies: Keys to navigate the environment
In a changing global environment, proactivity is fundamental. Companies that trade abroad must: monitor volatility of the exchange rate and its effects on prices and margins, anticipate risks through exchange coverage to protect yourself from abrupt fluctuations, and optimize your processes of international payments, seeking efficiency, speed and competitive costs.
In this context, have Expert advice in foreign trade and financial management becomes a Competitive advantage.
The commercial hardening of the US has not stopped the dynamism of the relationship with Mexico, but is redefining the rules of the game. If deeper integrations are achieved in key production chains – such as computing – and agreements that reduce tariff load in sensitive sectors such as automotive, automotive are reached, Mexico could open a new growth cycle in exports and attraction of foreign investment.
The complete analysis of Banco Base Free download here.
