The governments of Mexico and Canada announced the formal beginning of the review of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) in January, with the deadline to conclude the process on July 1, 2026.
“Next year what we are going to have, starting at the beginning of January, is the review process of the Treaty,” Marcelo Ebrard, Secretary of Economy, said this Sunday.
Last Thursday, in Ottawa, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Canada and the United States will begin talks in mid-January on the review of the USMCA. He added that Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s trade representative, will begin formal talks with his American counterpart, Jamieson Greer.
During the First National Meeting of Poles of Economic Development for Well-beingheld in Mexico City, Ebrard was confident that the renewal of the T-MEC will occur on July 1.
“So, our window of uncertainty is going to close. Yes or yes. Someone says: ‘No, because they are going to prolong it’. They (the Americans) have an electoral process, why would they prolong it? I say, that is not going to happen,” Ebrard ruled out.
For his part, in a virtual meeting with the provincial and territorial premiers, Carney reaffirmed the federal government’s commitment to protect Canada’s economic interests throughout the USMCA negotiations. He said he has a clear objective: to achieve the best possible agreement for Canada: “one that provides certainty and stability to Canadian workers, businesses and investors, while protecting our unique Canadian advantage.”
Last week, as part of this process, Greer declared before legislators in his country that the USMCA has been a “success to a certain extent” and, for it to be “resounding” and renewed, more progress is required.
“If you review what the United States chief negotiator just said in his hearings in Congress, which were just this week (December 16 and 17), it is evident that the Treaty is going to survive. Why? Well, because we are the main buyer of the United States. Nobody buys more from the United States than Mexico,” said Ebrard.
In the balance of the White House Trade Representation (USTR), the USMCA has provided some certainty to North American trade. U.S. exports of goods and services to Canada and Mexico increased 56% since 2020.
“Therefore, if your economy is doing better, then everyone who sells to you is interested. In other words, you are a substantive part of the economic prosperity scenario of the United States, or at least a good part of its economy. For example, think about Texas. Who is the number one gas customer in Texas? It’s Mexico. And so on,” Ebrard added.
He mentioned a second factor: “They need us. Yes, for a good part of their strategic activities. For example, the United States automotive industry would not be competitive without Mexico. There is no way.”
The official highlighted that promoting the Economic Development Poles for Well-being during the period that the negotiations on the T-MEC last will be crucial, arguing that once this trade agreement is renewed Investments will flow to a greater extent to Mexico both national and foreign.
“What will be our task is to close the window of uncertainty as soon as possible, at the lowest cost we can. That is the strategy. Time, in a way, runs in our favor. Remember that it is always Mexico’s great resource, time,” Ebrard told the audience at the event.
“So, there is no need to get exasperated sometimes. Simply the window of uncertainty We are going to close it. Nothing more, calm down. Now, for that, when that happens, what you are going to have is a new commercial order that has a geopolitical idea as its axis,” he concluded.
