Washington, D.C. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised upwards its growth forecast for the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean to leave it at 2.4% for 2025.
The expected growth rate is four tenths of a point higher than the 2% projected in May. According to experts from the organization, this adjustment in the regional GDP forecast incorporates the best performance expected for Brazil and Mexicowhich contribute 65% of the Latin American GDP.
Inside the World Economic Outlook (WEO), which is the flagship report of the IMF, maintained the growth forecast for Mexico at 1% for this year, as they projected at the beginning of the month. This new projection contrasts with the 0.2% they forecast in July, it is far from the 0.3% contraction estimated by themselves in April but is still below the 1.7% growth expectation they had in January.
For Brazil, which is the largest economy in the region by contributing 33% of the regional GDP, they anticipate a growth of 2.4% for this year, which is higher than the estimate they had five months ago, which was 2 percent.
In the report, released on the first day of work of the Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bankprojected that the most dynamic economy in the region will be Argentina, with a growth of 4.5% in GDP, which however incorporates the recognition of less dynamism than expected in April, when they estimated that it could register a rebound of 5.5 percent. Paraguay will continue to be dynamic, with an increase of 4.4% annually in 2025.
For next year, they anticipate that the regional economy will see an increase of 2.3%, just below the 2.4% projected in April.
The expected performance for Mexico and Brazil next year is 1.5% and 1.9% respectively.
Growth in the T-MEC zone, qualified by uncertainty
In this year of fragmentation in trade, it would be relevant to identify how the commercial regions where Mexico participates are growing.
Between the economies of the United States, Mexico and Canada Trade Agreement (T-MEC), the most dynamic this year will be the United States with a 2% advance in GDP, which however speaks of a slowdown from the 2.8% observed in 2024.
For Canada, they anticipate a GDP increase of 1.2% while Mexico will be at the bottom of the dynamism among the partners with an advance of 1 percent.
In the organization’s document they stated that Mexico and Canada have come in to absorb the drop in exports that the United States bought from China, which has also contributed to its better performance.
However, the Fund’s experts highlighted that this compensation from Mexico and Canada is less than that observed in the period from 2018 to 2019, since the uncertainty generated by tariffs on products outside the rules of the T-MEC and the tightening of the rules of the trade agreement have qualified their participation.
China, the BRIC economy most impacted by tariffs
By taking a new approach to the GDP of the group of most developed emerging economies, which are Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC), it is observed that India will once again be the most dynamic economy with a growth of 6.6% in 2025, which is greater than the 6.4% estimated by themselves in July.
Very close, but below, will be China, with an expansion of 4.8% in GDP this year and 4.2% next. China is involved in volatility due to the application of tariffs by the United States, but according to Fund experts, it has managed to compensate for the deterioration of its exports to the United States with sales to the European Union.
At this moment, the press conference for the launch of the WEO is being held, by the economic advisor of the IMF, Pierre Olivier Gourinchas.
