Projections for the exchange rate
Uncertainty about the bilateral relationship between Mexico and the United States continues to affect exchange rate projections. Alejandra Marcos, Director of Analysis and Strategy of Interm Banco, indicated that the exchange rate acts as an escape valve in times of risk and uncertainty.
According to its analysis, towards the end of the year, with the negotiation of the Sunset clause of the T-MEC, the risks are likely to intensify. However, as long as threats such as tariffs are not completed, anticipates that the peso could stabilize at levels between 20 and 20.50 pesos per dollar.
Nadia Montes de Oca, Franklin Templeton México senior portfolio manager, added that the behavior of the exchange rate this year surprised the market, since it remained below the historical maximums, even in the face of factors such as elections in the United States and The differences in monetary policy between Banxico and the Federal Reserve. In spite of this, it expects that by 2025 the exchange rate could exceed 20 pesos per dollar due to persistent risks in the commercial and political relationship.
On the other hand, Jessica Roldán Peña, chief economist of the Bolsa de Bolsa Finamex, stressed that the weight has experienced considerable depreciation in recent months, a reflection of the prevailing uncertainty.
Although it considers that the political landscape in the United States could be clarified in 2025 and stop this trend, does not rule out episodes of volatility related to the tone of the bilateral relationship between Mexico and the United States. According to its projections, the exchange rate would close 2025 in approximately 20.30 pesos per dollar.
The experts agree that the exchange rate will continue to face pressures in an environment of geopolitical and economic risks. Although doubts persist about the outcome of commercial and political tensions, analysts emphasize that the Mexican weight retains its position as one of the most liquid and relevant currencies globally.
With information from Alex Bazán.
