The former vice president precise what will happen to Peru and what should be her role in the region.
He has warned about the fiscal deficit in the United States and domestic demand in China.
Both have fiscal problems. Demand in China is slowed. There is a difficult crisis of lack of trust after the real estate crisis. So how does domestic demand boost to grow again? Because China needs to grow from its own industry, but this depends a lot on international trade. And with the new barriers of the additional 20% of tariffs that have just been announced and the other channels, which were Canada and Mexico, which will have additional 25%, the issue has been complicated.
And the deficit in the US?
The United States is a little easier because it has the currency that prevails globally, but these tariff policies are not good for them either. On the one hand, reduce bureaucracy and limit excessive regulation has mobilized its industry; But, on the other hand, it makes costs more expensive because their industry is dependent on trade, especially with Canada and Mexico. Reducing the economic growth of the world from this protectionism policy is not good for the US either can generate internal inflation with the rise in tariffs. The economy is circular and all countries are chained. A reduction of global trade affects Peru’s trade.
The new tariffs to Mexico, Canada and China have just been completed.
A very bad practice to use commercial policy to achieve non -economic objectives. The highest cost will be American consumers. Prices will even rise to the goods that replace these imports in the US will generate productive inefficiencies. Their best resources will be used to produce goods with lower productivity, limiting growth and generating inflation. While the direct factors in the demand for fentanil are not controlled, there will always be ways to smuggle it to the US. There will even be ways to produce it internally. The root of illegal immigration, political and economic problems in countries that expel many people to get out of their homeland should be faced. Commercial policy does not work and can trigger a war of tariffs that will further affect global growth, as it did before.
Sheinbaum responds to Trump with “tariff and non -tariff measures”
Will tariffs rise to Peru?
I do not think they put barriers because the United States trade balance with us is overravitary. We import more from the United States than we export. However, any type of commercial barrier hurts us. I think, if we attract adequate investments, we can be a provider of goods and services for the United States. We depend on them in corn, wheat, etc. They depend on us to a lesser extent, but they are great buyers on our agricultural part.
Mauricio Claver Carone, special envoy for Latin America, spoke of the port of Chancay. Could Chancay gain notoriety for the United States?
It could, but remember that the port of Chancay is not the only port that Peru has. The port of Callao is much more important. Today it transports more Teus, which are the containers. In terms of volume it is very important. What we have to do is that Callao’s prepaid should be walking. And we have other ports, such as Matarani, Ilo, etc. And we can bring American capital too. Here there is freedom of entrepreneurs as long as they comply with Peruvian laws and are well regulated. We do not raise a situation of total dependence with China or the United States.
What to expect from the arrival of José Salardi to MEF?
Hopefully Salardi drives private investment and recover fiscal discipline. To do this, he needs all the support of the Presidency and the Legislative.
Could the Latinos of Florida approach Trump to Latin America? Starting with Marco Rubio.
In the case of former Rubio, the new Secretary of State, I think he is a man who has a lot of clarity about foreign policy. He has been in Senate commissions related to the external policy of the United States. And we also have, luckily, someone who knows Peru well there, who is the former US -U. During the government of President PPK, that was also sought. The same PPK spoke with President Trump to know the Latin American business sector and face security issues they have in common. We are interested, for example, to continue USAID, which is fundamental in the fight against drug trafficking. Crop substitution programs have been successful. We have important exports, such as coffee and cocoa. In the issue of illegal gold there has also been an important investment. They are examples, but there is more. I think there is a very interesting cooperation space.
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
-The special economic zone would not be only for the port, but for the entire area. And it is not forever. And either to compete with the nationals.
-There must be a better management of the fiscal deficit. Correct Petroperú and that Congress does not get into. ”
-According to the experts, we will grow around 2.8. It could be more, depending on how the election year is handled in the second semester. ”
-We have to raise a neutral policy, but respect for the international relations system.
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