Madrid/Melissa was approaching Kingston early in the morning as a very powerful hurricane, with sustained winds of 280 kilometers per hour and gusts that exceeded 300, including one of 388 collected by an aircraft from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States. Although it is expected to weaken slightly upon leaving Jamaica, forecasts indicate that it will gain strength again before arriving in Cuba early Wednesday morning.
The greatest concern is the storm surge that it will cause on the coasts of Granma, Santiago de Cuba and Guantánamo, which will generate flooding in low-lying areas, and the powerful rains that are expected throughout the east of the country, dangerous in mountain areas due to the risk of river flooding and landslides. The risk is such that the Granma newspaper has not taken half measures.
“Melissa will arrive with force and is very concerned about what she could destroy in her path. But let it not be life that remains vulnerable,” he warns. The official newspaper states that, in addition to the hundreds of thousands of evacuees, “no time has been wasted in planning, in applying the evacuation plans for people at risk, in safeguarding resources, insuring Health institutions, in providing rescue equipment, in developing hydraulic works.”
But if there is one infrastructure in serious danger, it is precisely the weakest: the national electrical system (SEN). Jorge Piñón, a researcher at the University of Texas in Austin, warned this newspaper that the risks go far beyond generation – which will have to be paralyzed in thermoelectric plants in affected areas when the time comes. according to the official press– and they even reach logistical capabilities.
“The impact of Hurricane Melissa, category five, could not be devastating only for the Antonio Maceo, Renté, thermoelectric plants in Santiago de Cuba, and Lidio Ramón, Felton, in Holguín. It could also affect 26% of the country’s generating sets, with an installed capacity of 813 GW in the five eastern provinces, which represents 31% of the national total,” says the specialist based on the data. officers.
Although the Government announced this Sunday that there were already linemen from all over the country on their way to the eastern zone to prepare – and recover – the infrastructure, Piñón recalls that there will be “thousands of kilometers of electrical transmission and distribution lines, along with their substations,” that cross the areas that will predictably be hardest hit by Melissa.
The photovoltaic panels, towers and generators of the La Herradura wind farm, in Holguín, are also exposed. The Electrical Union and the official provincial press He explained that the panels of all the solar parks have been protected with strong tapes that are tied to the foundations of the tables, although the omen is not good. The head of investments at the Holguín Electric Company, César Luis Sarmiento Ávila, pointed out that, according to the design, the fastening can withstand winds of up to 200 kilometers per hour, 80 less than the hurricane currently having as it passes through Jamaica.
“But the impact of Melissa could go far beyond electricity generation. The entire value chain of the energy logistics system in the eastern provinces could be seriously compromised,” warns Piñón. “The Hermanos Díaz refinery, with an installed capacity of 30,000 barrels per day and an extensive fuel storage network, constitutes a strategic axis for the supply of refined products, lubricants and liquefied gas cylinders to this region of the country,” he describes.
In addition, all the territorial marketing terminals of Cuba-Petroleo (Cupet) have dozens of fuel and liquefied petroleum gas storage tanks that are “vital for the national economy” and it will be essential that tanker trucks can access the roads to supply the generating sets, gas stations and industries. “Yes, electricity is crucial, but logistics – the backbone of fuel supply – will also be put to the test in the coming weeks,” concludes the specialist.
In homes, concern continues about blackouts that last more than 24 hours and although applications that do not require connection have been activated and amateur radio emergency networks operate to have access to hurricane information, a large part of the population is distressed by the disconnection. “My mother spends more time without electricity than with it,” X, originally from Santiago, tells this newspaper. “She only told me that in he arrives and puts From my house they came with several buses and took everyone away. They have transferred anyone who might have a bad time, that’s what she told me.” Since her house is in good condition and with enough supplies, “she is more worried about the viruses there than about the cyclone,” she adds.
The arboviruses that have been shaking the country for weeks face another litmus test with the hurricane, where everything can get worse. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) has sent a donation that includes, among other things, hygiene kits and water treatment plants. “The goal is to support national early recovery efforts and reduce the suffering of affected families,” a spokesperson said Monday.
The donation includes 4,000 tarps for temporary roof coverage, seven electric generators, six chainsaws, 259 specialized and basic tool kits for roof repairs and more 2,000 single-person mattresses. In addition, the United Nations said that it has activated its Anticipatory Action mechanism, with which it plans to distribute more than 100 tons of rice and emergency materials.
The divorce between what is said in the official press and what citizens say on the networks is total. The Government maintains that all preventive measures have been taken and now appeals to discipline and individual responsibility to avoid any tragedy, while messages on social networks consider that the conditions in which this hurricane arrives are so deplorable that not even the best of forecasts can mitigate the effects.
But the authorities consider the reproaches a “discredit campaign.” “A failed State cannot do everything we were doing before the cyclone, nor can it be organizing all the efforts that are being made to face this situation and then recover from it,” Miguel Díaz-Canel said yesterday.
