Pablo Herken and Efrain Alegre.
The economist Pablo Herken expressed his total distrust of Efraín Alegre and argued that the mere possibility that he could be president of the Republic generates horror in him to the point of knowing from experience since the “eighties” that the best for the world is not coming with him. country.
“For him yes, I have no doubt. All of Paraguay is reduced to “I want to Ephraim Alegre”. It is authoritarian, and to a dangerous degree, individualistic and at a high level of “it’s me and only me that matters, the rest is second-rate”; He doesn’t talk, he just attacks; It doesn’t build, it just destroys. It is capricious, stubborn and gross”, wielded the economist Paul Herken in its opinion column published in the newspaper La Nación.
According to his appreciation, in Alegre’s political saddlebag there are no consolidated thoughts, deep reflections or a well-crafted speech. “If Don Eligio Ayala revived, he would be scared of the Efraín so empty of content and so orphan of human warmth. I take it for granted that Efraín will impose with blows an economic policy of attack, confrontation, division, punishment, without the ability to negotiate and agree. He will say “these are my good ones” and “these are my bad ones”. Prizes for some and sticks for others. This is how it is governed, he will shout it; door for misrule, I will tell you. We have done a lot since 2003 to keep the economic house tidy. Outside they see us well and that is reflected in our good economic climate in the region. It is what we would lose. With all due respect, Efraín Alegre, ”he wrote.
The economist also brought to light the results by country of the Economic Climate Indicator for the largest economies in the region surveyed by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV IBRE): en Latin America (in points) continue to place Paraguay in first place in the ranking of 10 nations. To reach the favorable result, the Current Situation Indicators (ISA) and Expectations (IE) are taken into account. The report indicates that Latin America improves in the first half of 2023. The Economic Climate Indicator (ICE) increased between the 4th. quarter of 2022 and the 1st. quarter of 2023, with progress in six of the top 10 countries surveyed. Brazil moved in the opposite direction, with a further drop in the ICE driven by the Current Situation Indicator.
Paraguay leads the way in improving the region’s economic climate. Between the 4th quarter of 2022 and the 1st. quarter of 2023, the country registered an increase of 47.6 points in the ICE, mainly influenced by the increase of 83.3 points in the ISA and 3.6 points in the IE. In 2022, the country suffered a severe drought and lost exports to Russia as a result of the war in Ukraine, which helps explain the improvement in indicators, according to Herken.
The second most prominent is Peru that, despite the political turmoil with the departure of the president-elect, has shown a degree of positive resilience in political terms, according to respondents. Other countries with improvements in the economic climate were Mexico, Ecuador, Argentina and Chile. It is observed that, with the exception of Chile, which maintained the IE level of the 4th. quarter of 2022, all the countries that registered an increase in the ICE, also did so in relation to the ISA and the IE.
Brazil is in the group that registered a drop in the three indicators in the 1st. quarter of 2023. ICE fell 11.0 points and went to 73.5 points. ISA fell 21.7 points to 70.6 points, while IE had a smaller reduction: –0.4 points to 76.5 points. Unlike the aggregate result for Latin America, the IE level exceeds that of the ISA by 5.9 points. The scenario for Brazil described in the survey is one of stability in expectations and a sharp deterioration (above 20 points) in the assessment of the current situation. They accompany Brazil in the fall of ICE, Uruguay, Colombia and Bolivia.
Some differences stand out, according to Herken. In Brazil, all three indicators are in the unfavorable zone. Uruguay and Colombia, however, present a favorable assessment of the current situation. Let’s see the forecasts of the experts on GDP growth in 2023 made in the 4th. quarter of 2022 and the 1st. quarter of 2023. In this survey, growth for 2023 was revised upwards in Paraguay, Mexico and Argentina. Paraguay stands out, where the projection of GDP increased from 3.9% to 4.6%, the highest growth rate in the region. In Mexico, GDP growth went from 1.4% to 1.7% and in Argentina, from 1.1% to 1.2%. In the 1st Quarter of 2023, 143 economic specialists in 15 Latin American countries were consulted.
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