The Governor of Aguascalientesthe baker, Martin Orozco Sandovalwill deliver, on October 1 to whoever wins the election on June 5, an entity with a economic growth hurt by the Covid-19 pandemic; good accounts in terms of employment and public debt management; alert on the productivity indicator and yellow traffic light in working poverty and informality.
Economic growth
During the last year of Governor Carlos Lozano de la Torre (2016), the annual growth rate per quarter had remained between 5.3% and 6.2%. In fact, during the first quarter of the current president’s government it rose to 7.3%, however, for the following quarter, it fell to 0.6% and, practically all of 2017 and 2018, it did not exceed 5%, except for the last quarter of 2018, when it reached 5.5 percent. From there, until the fourth quarter of 2020, it remained in negative numbers, except for the second quarter of 2019, when it registered 1.7 percent. The lowest point was reached in the second quarter of 2020, the sharpest in the Covid-19 pandemic, when that indicator stood at -23.1 percent. As of the first quarter of last year, economic activity was reactivated and reached a peak of 23.2%, in the second quarter of 2021, but in the most recent data available, that of the third quarter of 2021, it was again in negative numbers, with -3.3 percent.
Employment
Aguascalientes has the goal of creating 3,875 accumulated jobs by the first quarter of 2022. During the government period in question, the most difficult parts in this sector were the second quarter of 2020, with -6,284, the third of that same year with -1,983 and the fourth of that year with -6,867. At the start of 2021, the indicator recovered, since in the first quarter it reached 10,200, for the third quarter it reached 17,466 and the last available record, that of the first quarter of 2022, indicates 5,721 formal jobs generated.
Informality
Aguascalientes has the goal of having a informality rate less than or equal to the national level (51.5%). This indicator has been decreasing in the entity during the last 10 years. When the previous state administration ended, the indicator was at 41.7% and in the fourth quarter of 2021 it was at 38.9% and even reached 36.6% in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first of 2021. The most recent report , that of the fourth quarter of 2021 places it at 38.9 percent.
Working Poverty
In this entity, 34.8% of the population cannot acquire a food basket with your earned income. It is less than 40.3, which is on a national scale. During the fourth quarter of 2016 that indicator was at 33.8 percent.
Public debt
The public debt of Aguascalientes in 2020 was equivalent to 0.1% of the state GDP when the goal is for it to be less than the national level, which is 0.9%. In 2016 that indicator was at 0.2%, then it rose to 0.9% in 2017, but dropped to 0.2% in 2018.
competitiveness
According to the 2021 State Competitiveness Index of the IMCO, which measures the ability of states to generate, attract and retain talent and investments, this entity is in sixth place, since it fell one position compared to the previous year. In 2016 Aguascalientes was in the second national place of that index, only surpassed by the Mexico City.
Security
At the end of 2021, Aguascalientes ranked as the fourth state with the fewest homicides per 100,000 inhabitants with 6.3. just below Yucatan, Coahuila Y Baja California Sur. The national average is 26.8 and the state with the most is Zacatecas with 99.2.
According to State Performance Index of Attorneys and Prosecutors 2021 of Zero Impunity, Aguascalientes has 10.4 public ministries per 100,000 inhabitants, just the national average and has 42.2% impunity in intentional homicide, when the national average is 89.6 percent.
The criminal traffic light places Aguascalientes in green in homicides, kidnappings and rape, in yellow in extortion, vehicle theft, home robbery, business robbery, injuries and family violence, while in red in femicide and drug dealing.
political landscape
The government of Aguascalientes was in the hands of the PRI until 1998, when he was relieved by the BREAD, who remained three six-year terms. He then governed the PRI, from 2010 to 2016, when the entity was recovered by the current governor of PAN extraction, who obtained 33.81% of the votes.
The current legislature of the State Congress is made up of 27 legislators, of which 13 are from the PAN, six from Morena, three from the PRD, two from the MC, while the PRI, PT and PVEM have one each.
Of the 11 municipalities that make up the entity, four are governed by the PAN, two by NA, while PRI, PRD, PVEM PT govern one each and one more is governed by an independent.
In the midterm elections of 2021, the PAN obtained, alone, two of the three federal electoral districts in dispute and one more allied with the PRI and PRD. In that election Morena obtained 24.9% of the votes, while the PAN 44.5% and the PRI 9.1 percent.
On June 5, in this entity of one million 425,607 inhabitants, only the governorship will be renewed.
Sources: IMCO, Mexico, how are we doing?, INE, TResearch International, Zero Impunity, Criminal Stoplight and SESNSP.
