The financial market predicts that 2025 will close with inflation of 4.32%, a result below the target ceiling. Regarding the country’s growth, it maintained expectations for the week with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 2.26%.
As it is the last month of the year, when the numbers are practically consolidated, the Focus Bulletin, produced by the Central Bank, after consulting the financial market, did not present, this Monday (29), in Brasília, projections for the basic interest rate – the Selic. It is at 15% per year.
The basic interest rate is at its highest level since July 2006, when it was 15.25% per year. After reaching 10.5% per year in May last year, the rate began to be raised in September 2024. The Selic reached 15% per year at the June meeting, having been maintained at that level since then.
Inflation
Variations were minimal for both inflation and exchange rates. In the case of the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA, the country’s official inflation), the financial market reduced expectations for the seventh consecutive week. A week ago, the forecast was 4.33%; and four weeks ago, at 4.43%.
Defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), the inflation target for 2025 is 3%, with a tolerance range of 1.5 percentage points up or down. In other words, the lower limit is 1.5%, and the upper limit is 4.5% (above, therefore, the estimated result of 4.32%)
In November, the rise in the price of airline tickets caused inflation to reach 0.18%. In October, the IPCA was 0.09%. As a result, inflation accumulated in 12 months is 4.46%, also within the target of the National Monetary Council – CMN.
For 2026, the financial market’s expectation is that the IPCA will remain at 4.05%; and for 2027 the index is expected to be 3.8%.
Exchange rate and GDP
In the case of exchange rates, the market projects that the dollar will close the year at R$5.44, a slightly higher projection than last week’s, which was at R$5.43; and lower than the projection presented four weeks ago, which estimated the dollar at R$5.40.
Regarding GDP, stable according to market expectations at 2.26%, the Focus Bulletin also maintained previous estimates for 2026, with a projected growth of 1.80% – the same projection for 2027.
Driven by the expansion of services and industry in the second quarter of this year, the Brazilian economy grew 0.4%. In 2024, GDP closed with an increase of 3.4%. The result represents the fourth consecutive year of growth, being the biggest expansion since 2021, when GDP reached 4.8%.
