For the 11th week in a row, the financial market reduced inflation expectations to 2025. Currently, the Projections indicate that the year will close with the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) – considered the country’s official inflation – 5.05%, less than 5.07% projected a week ago; and at 5.17% designed four weeks ago.
This is what the Focus report, released on Monday (11) by the Central Bank.
For 2026, inflation fall expectations have been maintained four weeks ago when it reached 4.5%. Currently, the IPCA designed for next year is 4.41%; and for 2027, at 4%.
Despite an improvement in inflation -related expectations, the estimate for 2025 remains above the inflation target ceiling to be pursued by the BC. Defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), the goal is 3%, with a tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage up or down. The lower limit, therefore, is 1.5%; and the upper, 4.5%.
Even with the inflationary slowdown in recent months, the 12 -month accumulated index reached 5.35%, being for the sixth monthly month above the target ceiling of up to 4.5%.
This period of six months above 4.5% constitutes a goal over the new regime adopted in 2024. Each time this happens, the president of the BC has to disclose, by means of an open letter to the Minister of Finance, who chairs CMN, the detailed description of the causes of non -compliance; measures to ensure the return of inflation to the established limits; and the deadline in which measures are expected to have effect.
Selic
To achieve the inflation target, the Central Bank uses as its main instrument the basic interest rate, Selic, defined at 15% per year by the BC monetary policy committee (COPOM). One of the concerns manifested by the Copom is the US commercial policy, something that may even lead the monetary authority not to rule out the possibility of discharge from Selic “if necessary”.
For now, the Estimation of the consulted analysts remains stable for the seventh consecutive week, at 15% at the end of 2025. The market also maintained Selic projections to 2026 (12.50%); and 2027 (10.50%).
GDP and Dollar
The financial market has reviewed down the growth expectations of the economy, projecting, to the end of 2025, a gross domestic product (GDP, the sum of the wealth produced in the country) of 2.21%. A week ago, the projection was that the economy would close the year with a growth of 2.23% (the same percentage projected four weeks ago).
For subsequent years, GDP projections are 1.87% for 2026 and at 1.93% for 2027.
Already the Market projections for the dollar quotation in 2026 remains stable at $ 5.60 since last week.
Four weeks ago, the expectations were that the US currency would end the year quoted at $ 5.65. For 2026 and 2027, the projections are the same: dollar quoted at $ 5.70.
